ArticleCritical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine2025
Critical care outcome prediction equation model, version 7.
Article in Critical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
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8 authors.
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Abstract
Objective: Mortality prediction models are used for benchmarking, audit, research, and epidemiology. This report describes the development and validation methodology, for version 7 of the critical care outcome prediction equation for monitoring adult intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk. Design: This was a multiphase study incorporating data extraction, curation, aggregation, modelling, and validation applied to jurisdictional administrative datasets to model 90-day survival. Setting: The study was conducted across 28 public and 19 private hospitals in state of Victoria, Australia, with an adult population of 5.28 million. Participants: A total of 215,148 consecutive adult hospital separations receiving intensive care over 5 years, July 2019-June 2024, were included in the study. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measures included the case fatality rate (CFR) and standardised 90-day mortality ratio (SMR) at the provider level with model fit assessed for calibration (Brier score; Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic [H Results: The CFR was found to be 12.0 (95% confidence interval: 11.8-12.1) per 100 separations and 16.1 (95% confidence interval: 15.7-16.4) per 100 persons. A total of 7771 (53.7%) admission diagnoses were aggregated into 24 clinical diagnosis groups and eight demographic (final) model variables. The following results were obtained: mean Brier score = 0.08; H Conclusions: Critical care outcome prediction equation, version 7 is a parsimonious hospital mortality prediction model for adult intensive care admissions, derived from administrative data common to all jurisdictions.
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