Post-Traumatic Epilepsy After Mild and Moderate Traumatic Brain Injury: A Narrative Review and Development of a Clinical Decision Tool.

backgroundPost-traumatic epilepsy (PTE) is a recognized complication of traumatic brain injury (TBI), yet its risk following mild and moderate TBI remains underappreciated. Although mild TBI represents the majority of cases in clinical practice, a subset of patients develop unprovoked seizures months or even years post-injury. This review aims to synthesize current evidence on the incidence and predictors of PTE in mild and moderate TBI and to propose a clinically actionable decision-support tool for early risk stratification.

methodsWe performed a narrative review of peer-reviewed studies published between 1985 and 2024 that reported on the incidence, risk factors and predictive models of PTE in patients with mild (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] 13-15) and moderate (GCS 9-12 or imaging-positive) TBI. Data from 24 studies were extracted, focusing on neuroimaging findings, early post-traumatic seizures, EEG abnormalities and clinical risk factors. These variables were integrated into a rule-based algorithm, which was implemented using Streamlit to enable real-time clinical decision-making. The decision-support tool incorporated five domains: injury severity, early post-traumatic seizures, neuroimaging findings (including contusion location and hematoma type), clinical and demographic variables (age, sex, psychiatric comorbidities, prior TBI, neurosurgical intervention) and EEG abnormalities.

resultsPTE incidence following mild TBI ranged from <1% to 10%, with increased risk observed in patients presenting with intracranial hemorrhage or early seizures. From moderate TBI, incidence rates were consistently higher (6-12%). Key predictors included early seizures, frontal or temporal contusions, subdural hematoma, multiple contusions and midline shift. Additional risk-enhancing factors included prolonged loss of consciousness, male sex, psychiatric comorbidities and abnormal EEG patterns. Based on these features, we developed a decision-support tool that stratifies patients into low-, moderate- and high-risk categories for developing PTE.

conclusionsEven in non-severe cases, patients with mild and moderate TBI who exhibit high-risk features remain vulnerable to long-term epileptogenesis. Our proposed tool provides a pragmatic, evidence-based framework for early identification and follow-up planning. Prospective validation studies are needed to confirm its predictive accuracy and optimize its clinical utility.