Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41133508›Full record

ArticleMedical sciences (Basel, Switzerland)2025

A Compartmental Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Vaccination, Isolation, and Key Epidemiological Parameters on Mpox Control.

Pedro Pesantes-Grados, Nahía Escalante-Ccoyllo, Olegario Marín-Machuca, Abel Walter Zambrano-Cabanillas, Homero Ango-Aguilar, Obert Marín-Sánchez, Ruy D Chacón

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Pedro Pesantes-GradosUnidad de Posgrado, Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15081, Peru.ORCID 0000-0003-2370-1419
Nahía Escalante-CcoylloDepartamento de Computer Science, Facultad de Computación, Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología-UTEC, Barranco, Lima 15063, Peru.
Olegario Marín-MachucaDepartamento Académico de Ciencias Alimentarias, Facultad de Oceanografía, Pesquería, Ciencias Alimentarias y Acuicultura, Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal, Miraflores, Lima 15074, Peru.ORCID 0000-0002-0515-5875
Abel Walter Zambrano-CabanillasDepartamento de Acuicultura, Facultad de Oceanografía, Pesquería, Ciencias Alimentarias y Acuicultura, Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal, Miraflores, Lima 15074, Peru.ORCID 0000-0001-6930-5601
Homero Ango-AguilarPrograma Académico de Microbiología. Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional de San Cristóbal de Huamanga, Portal Independencia N° 57-Huamanga, Ayacucho 05001, Peru.ORCID 0000-0001-9871-7058
Obert Marín-SánchezDepartamento Académico de Microbiología Médica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Carlos Germán Amezaga 375, Lima 15081, Peru.ORCID 0000-0003-2912-1191
Ruy D ChacónPathogen Genetics Research Group (PATHO-GEN), OMICS, Lima 15001, Peru.ORCID 0000-0002-1044-7450

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMonkeypox (Mpox) is a re-emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV). Transmission occurs primarily through direct contact with lesions or contaminated materials, with sexual transmission playing a significant role in recent outbreaks. In 2022, Mpox triggered a major global outbreak and was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO), prompting renewed interest in effective control strategies.

methodsThis study developed a compartmental SEIR-based model to assess the epidemiological impact of key interventions, including vaccination and isolation, while incorporating critical epidemiological parameters. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine (1) disease dynamics in relation to the basic reproduction number, and (2) how different parameters influence the curve of symptomatic infections. Real-world continental-scale data were used to validate the model and identify the parameters that most significantly affect epidemic progression and potential control of Mpox.

resultsResults showed that the basic reproduction number was most influenced by the recovery rate, vaccination rate, vaccine effectiveness, and transmission rates of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. In contrast, the progression of symptomatic cases was highly sensitive to the case fatality rate and incubation rate.

conclusionsThese findings highlight the importance of integrated public health strategies combining vaccination, isolation, and early transmission control to mitigate future Mpox outbreaks.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalMpox, MonkeypoxVaccinationBasic Reproduction NumberDisease OutbreaksHumansMonkeypox virusbasic reproduction numbermathematical modelmonkeypox diseasesensitivity analysistransmissionvaccination

Identifiers

PMID41133508
PMCPMC12551027

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.