SynthesisArchives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique2025
Association between temperature and malaria (1959-2019): a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Synthesis in Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Hydroclimatic extremes indexed by SPI and malaria case dynamics in Oyo State, Nigeria: evidence for lagged, site-specific effects.Journal of water and health · 2026Article
- Lagged effect of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in Colombia (2013-2023): An approach with Bayesian spatiotemporal adjustment.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
objectivesMalaria remains a significant global health challenge, with temperature playing a critical role in transmission dynamics by affecting parasite development, mosquito longevity, and vectorial capacity. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to quantify the association between ambient temperature and malaria incidence across diverse geographical and ecological contexts, informing climate-informed control strategies.
methodsFollowing PRISMA guidelines, we systematically searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception to September 2024. Studies examining correlations between temperature metrics and malaria outcomes with a minimum 12-month follow-up were included. Methodological quality was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate pooled correlation coefficients and 95% confidence intervals.
resultsEleven studies from Africa and Asia spanning 1959-2019 were included, representing diverse transmission ecologies from temperate China to tropical Africa. Mean temperature showed a moderate positive correlation with malaria incidence (r = 0.417, 95% CI: 0.098-0.735, p = 0.01). Minimum temperature demonstrated the strongest and most consistent association with malaria test positivity rates (r = 0.454, 95% CI: 0.358-0.549, p < 0.001), with all 11 studies showing statistically significant positive correlations. Maximum temperature exhibited weaker relationships (r = 0.356, 95% CI: 0.263-0.450 for positivity rates). Substantial heterogeneity was observed across all analyses (I
conclusionsTemperature, particularly minimum temperature, significantly influences malaria transmission across diverse epidemiological settings. The stronger association with minimum temperature is concerning, given that climate change disproportionately affects nighttime temperatures. The substantial heterogeneity underscores the need for locally tailored climate-informed malaria control strategies. These findings support integrating temperature monitoring, especially minimum temperature thresholds, into malaria surveillance systems and early warning programs as climate change progresses.
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