Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41127124›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2026

Feasibility of eliminating adult hepatitis B in Guangdong by 2030: A modeling study.

Ning Sun, Xiaoping Shao, Chen Hou, Xiaowen Wei, Weizhao Lin, Ying Yang, Liang Chen, Chitin Hon, Guanghu Zhu, Jiufeng Sun and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Hepatitis B control in jeopardy.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Ning SunSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, 541004, China.
Xiaoping ShaoGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
Chen HouSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, 541004, China.
Xiaowen WeiSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, 541004, China.
Weizhao LinGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
Ying YangGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
Liang ChenGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
Chitin HonRespiratory Disease AI Laboratory in Epidemic Intelligence and Applications of Medical Big Data Instruments, Macau University of Science and Technology, China.
Guanghu ZhuSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, 541004, China.
Jiufeng SunGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
Limei SunGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objectives: Eliminating hepatitis B remains challenging, especially in Guangdong, the region with China's highest burden. Predicting incidence, optimizing vaccination, and reducing illness are essential to meet the WHO goal of a 90 % reduction by 2030. Methods: Based on the HBV surveillance data from 2005 to 2022, disease clustering patterns, correlation between vaccination and incidence were determined. A six-compartment transmission model was established and validated by estimating infectivity using nonlinear least squares and polynomial fitting. Results: From 2005 to 2022, acute HBV cases in Guangdong declined from 7509 to 2,097, while chronic cases in adults aged ≥15 rose from 38,595 to 146,658. High-risk clusters remained in Guangzhou, Foshan, and Shenzhen. Infant vaccination was linked to reduced acute infections but had limited effect on chronic cases. By 2030, acute HBV infectivity is projected to reach 1872 cases, with 100,354 new chronic infections expected in adults. To meet the WHO 2030 elimination target, average recovery time for chronic carriers must be reduced from 40 years to 7.7 years. For full elimination, it should be shortened to 1.85 years. Conclusions: Infant vaccination curbed acute HBV in youth, but chronic cases in adults threaten elimination goals. Scaling therapies to accelerate chronic HBV recovery is urgent.

Indexed as

HBV transmission modelHepatitis BRecovery timeVaccination

Identifiers

PMID41127124
PMCPMC12539227

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.