Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41126322›Full record

ArticleJournal of health, population, and nutrition2025

Global burden of liver cirrhosis: trends from 1990-2021 and projections to 2060.

Xuefeng Luo, Yinghao He, Zheng Jiang, Junyi Liao

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of health, population, and nutrition, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Xuefeng Luo *Department of Orthopeadics and Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Yinghao He *Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Zheng JiangDepartment of Orthopeadics and Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Junyi LiaoDepartment of Orthopeadics and Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China. liaojunyi@cqmu.edu.cn.

Funding

CQMU Program for Youth Innovation in Future Medicine W0154Cultivating Program and Candidate of Tip-Top Talent of The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University #BJRC2021-04
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLiver cirrhosis, a progressive and debilitating condition characterized by extensive fibrosis and disruption of hepatic architecture, remains a significant global health challenge, primarily arising from chronic hepatitis and other liver diseases.

methodsData from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were utilized to analyze trends in the incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and prevalence of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 across various geographic regions, aiming to provide guidance for future disease burden interventions. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized for predicting trends up to 2060.

resultsIn 2021, the global incidence of liver cirrhosis was recorded at 58,417,006 cases. Total death cases attributed to liver cirrhosis escalated to 1,425,142 in 2021, although the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) demonstrated a marked decline. Regional disparities were evident, with the highest incidence reported in North Africa and the Middle East, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions that bear a disproportionate burden. Following the current trends, it is projected that by 2060, the ASDR, ASPR, and DALYs rate for liver cirrhosis will progressively decline.

conclusionsThe findings underscore the need for enhanced strategies to combat liver cirrhosis, especially in high-burden regions. Specifically, the global incidence of liver cirrhosis has increased by 58.21% from 1990 to 2021. This prediction to 2060 holds strategic significance for guiding the adjustment of priorities in future disease burden management efforts.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthLiver CirrhosisAdolescentAdultAgedBayes TheoremDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleForecastingHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceQuality-Adjusted Life YearsGlobal burden of disease (GBD)IncidenceLiver cirrhosisPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID41126322
PMCPMC12541949

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.