Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41120704›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

Streamlined machine learning model for early sepsis risk prediction in burn patients.

Marius Drysch, Felix Reinkemeier, Flemming Puscz, Jannik Hinzmann, German Burn Registry, Marcus Lehnhardt, Christoph Wallner, Sonja Verena Schmidt

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Artificial Intelligence in Burn and Wound Care: Image Analysis, Prediction, and Clinical Integration.Journal of burn care & research : official publication of the American Burn Association · 2026
    Review
  2. Review
  3. An Introduction to AI for Clinicians: Tutorial.Interactive journal of medical research · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Marius DryschDepartment of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany. marius.drysch@bergmannsheil.de.
Felix ReinkemeierDepartment of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany.
Flemming PusczDepartment of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany.
Jannik HinzmannDepartment of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany.
German Burn Registry
Marcus LehnhardtDepartment of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany.
Christoph Wallner *Department of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany.
Sonja Verena Schmidt *Department of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Sepsis is the leading cause of mortality in burn patients, yet early identification remains difficult due to persistent hyperinflammatory responses and altered baseline physiology. We developed a streamlined machine learning model for early sepsis risk prediction in burn patients using data from 6629 patients across 11 centers participating in the German Burn Registry. The model was trained using only six admission-level variables (age, burned body surface area, deep partial-thickness burns, full-thickness burns, inhalation injury, and hypertension), selected through multiple feature selection methods and evaluated using cross-validated machine learning pipelines. The final Random Forest model achieved an AUROC of 0.91, sensitivity of 0.81, specificity of 0.85, and a negative predictive value of 0.98, enabling reliable early risk stratification immediately upon ICU admission. By relying solely on admission-level variables, this model offers a reliable and interpretable solution for early sepsis risk detection in burn patients, supporting timely interventions and potentially improving critical care outcomes.

Identifiers

PMID41120704
PMCPMC12540978

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.