Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41120388›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China.

Zijian Ren, Meng Jiang, Paul Behrens, Dingjiang Chen, Clemens Mostert, Wenji Zhou, Chunlong Li, Fei Li, Lin Liu, Heming Wang and 4 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Zijian Ren *State Key Laboratory of Chemical Engineering and Low-carbon Technology, Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Meng Jiang *Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0509-8927
Paul BehrensOxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. p.a.behrens@cml.leidenuniv.nl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2935-4799
Dingjiang ChenState Key Laboratory of Chemical Engineering and Low-carbon Technology, Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Clemens MostertCenter for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4141-7078
Wenji ZhouSchool of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China.
Chunlong LiState Key Laboratory of Chemical Engineering and Low-carbon Technology, Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Fei LiSchool of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, China.
Lin LiuState Key Laboratory of Chemical Engineering and Low-carbon Technology, Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Heming WangState Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry, Northeastern University, Shenyang, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3487-0912
Ming XuInstitute for Circular Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7106-8390
Edgar HertwichIndustrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4934-3421
Stefan BringezuCenter for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8745-984X
Bing ZhuState Key Laboratory of Chemical Engineering and Low-carbon Technology, Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. bingzhu@tsinghua.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2890-7523

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 41661144023
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Aggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone) make up half of all globally extracted materials and present substantial environmental challenges. China, which consumes half of the world's aggregates, is undergoing profound shifts in both supply and demand. Our scenario-based model tracks aggregate flows and stocks across 30 end-uses in Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2050. We find that China's aggregate demand peaked around 2015, accompanied by a gradual and continuous shift from natural to manufactured aggregates. Total demand after 2030 is projected to decline to ~50% of 2020 levels in circular economy scenarios. Per capita stocks tend to saturate by 2040, although saturation timing varies across provinces. Stock saturation may lead to increased availability of recycled aggregates, which could become a primary supply source. We highlight the critical need for stricter policies and regulations for the aggregate industry, offering insights for other economies facing similar challenges.

Identifiers

PMID41120388
PMCPMC12541054

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.