ArticleBMJ open2025
Projection of age-standardised mortality rates for 23 cancer types in India: a nationwide projection until 2030 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.
Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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6 authors.
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Abstract
objectivesTo project the future burden of cancer mortality in India by forecasting age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for 23 major cancer types up to the year 2030, providing crucial evidence for long-term health planning and resource allocation.
designA retrospective analysis and time-series forecasting study. Participants Aggregated, national-level cancer mortality data for the population of India from 2000 to 2019 were used.
participantsAggregated, national-level cancer mortality data for the population of India from 2000 to 2019 were used.
methodsAnnual ASMR data for 23 cancer types were obtained from the Global Cancer Observatory. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average was employed to forecast ASMR until 2030. For each cancer site, the model with the minimum Bayesian Information Criterion was chosen for males, females and both sexes combined.
resultsThe projections reveal diverging mortality patterns across different cancer types. For both genders, the ASMR for mouth oropharynx had the highest estimation of 13.75 (95% CI: 12.69 to 14.81) per 100000 population by 2030 from a baseline of 10.21 in 2000. Breast and cervical cancer showed estimations of 6.62 and 6.03 in 2030, respectively. Conversely, mortality rate projections for several cancers declined, most notably cervical cancer and stomach cancer
conclusionsOur projections indicate a rise linked lifestyle and metabolic factors and a decline in infection-related and tobacco-related cancers. These underscore the need for strengthening preventive and screening programmes for the former, while continuing to invest in successful interventions for the latter.
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