Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41115281›Full record

ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2025

Trends in Cancer Incidence in Younger and Older Adults : An International Comparative Analysis.

Amy Berrington de Gonzalez, Martina Brayley, Reuben Frost, Neal Freedman, Marc J Gunter, Isobel Jackson, Patricia Lapitan, Meredith S Shiels, Montserrat García-Closas

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Amy Berrington de GonzalezDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, and Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research Unit, The Institute of Cancer Research and Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (A.B.d.G., M.G.-C.).ORCID 0000-0002-7332-8387
Martina BrayleyDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom (M.B., R.F.).ORCID 0009-0006-0576-6234
Reuben FrostDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom (M.B., R.F.).
Neal FreedmanDivision of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland (N.F.).ORCID 0000-0003-0074-1098
Marc J GunterCancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research Unit, The Institute of Cancer Research and Imperial College London, and School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (M.J.G., I.J.).
Isobel JacksonCancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research Unit, The Institute of Cancer Research and Imperial College London, and School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (M.J.G., I.J.).ORCID 0009-0001-3203-3953
Patricia LapitanSchool of Medical Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom (P.L.).ORCID 0009-0005-3179-7512
Meredith S ShielsDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland (M.S.S.).ORCID 0000-0001-8390-6091
Montserrat García-ClosasDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, and Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research Unit, The Institute of Cancer Research and Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (A.B.d.G., M.G.-C.).ORCID 0000-0003-1033-2650

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThere is concern about widespread increases in cancer incidence rates in younger adults.

objectiveTo compare international cancer incidence trends in younger adults (aged 20 to 49 years) and older adults (aged ≥50 years).

designSurveillance study.

settingForty-two countries in Asia (

participantsAdults aged 20 years or older. MEASUREMENTS: Joinpoint regression to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cancer incidence rates for 13 cancer types previously reported to be increasing in multiple countries in younger adults (leukemia and breast, endometrial, colorectal, oral, kidney, liver, pancreatic, gallbladder, prostate, stomach, esophageal, and thyroid cancer).

resultsIncidence rates increased in younger adults in most (>75%) countries between 2003 and 2017 for 6 of the 13 cancer types: thyroid cancer (median AAPC, 3.57%), breast cancer (median AAPC, 0.89%), colorectal cancer (median AAPC, 1.45%), kidney cancer (median AAPC, 2.21%), endometrial cancer (median AAPC, 1.66%), and leukemia (median AAPC, 0.78%). Incidence rates for these cancer types also increased in older adults in most countries (median AAPCs, 3% for thyroid cancer, 0.86% for breast cancer, 1.65% for kidney cancer, 1.20% for endometrial cancer, and 0.61% for leukemia). The exception was colorectal cancer, which only increased in older adults in about half the countries (median AAPC, 0.37%), and the AAPC was greater in younger than older adults in 69% of countries. For liver, oral, esophageal, and stomach cancer, rates decreased in younger adults in more than half the countries. LIMITATION: Most countries with available data were high-middle-income countries, and the results might not be generalizable.

conclusionCancer incidence rates increased for several cancer types in many of the countries studied; however, other than colorectal cancer, these increases occurred in both younger and older adults. These findings can help inform future research and clinical and public health guidelines. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Institute of Cancer Research and National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthNeoplasmsAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionAge FactorsFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedRegistriesYoung Adult

Identifiers

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.