ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Interplay of population mobility, healthcare resources, and spatiotemporal clustering: epidemiology and prevention strategies for HIV among blood donors in Zhejiang, China.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: This study leverages Zhejiang Province's HIV-confirmed positive blood donor database (2017-2024), integrating multidimensional data including demographic, serological, geospatial, and policy indicators to systematically analyze infection risk factors, screening marker characteristics, spatiotemporal distribution patterns, migration impacts, and the regulatory effects of healthcare resource allocation and government investment on donor HIV positivity. Methods: 5,204,965 voluntary donors underwent nucleic acid/serological testing. Multivariate logistic regression, spatiotemporal scan statistics (SaTScan), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) modeling, and correlation analyses were applied. Healthcare capacity was evaluated via principal component analysis (PCA) index; future trends projected using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Results: During April 2017 to December 2024, 449 HIV-positive donors were confirmed (8.63 per 100,000 donors), with significant risk factors including people moving in from high-prevalence areas (OR 1.56), male gender (OR 7.32), self-employed (OR 1.46), and non-regular donation status (OR 1.86), while older age (OR 0.97) and government employment (OR 0.49) served as protective factors. Among confirmed positives, 98.44% exhibited HIV Ag⁺Ab⁺NAT⁺ reactivity. There was significant provincial decline in positivity (EAPC = -12.41, Conclusion: Centralized testing and cross-regional deferral strategies have significantly reduced HIV positivity among Zhejiang's donors. Persistent challenges include window-period transmission, low-viremia infections under antiretroviral therapy. Further reduction of residual transfusion risks requires integrated epidemiological surveillance, high-risk population interventions, and optimized healthcare resource allocation.
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