ArticleHernia : the journal of hernias and abdominal wall surgery2025
Investigation of risk factors and predictive model development for the progression of incarcerated inguinal hernia to strangulation.
Article in Hernia : the journal of hernias and abdominal wall surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Childhood Inguinal, Femoral, and Abdominal Hernias in Low-Income Countries: Trends, Inequalities, and Projections to 2050.Pediatric surgery international · 2026Article
- The disease burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernias in children from low- and middle-income countries, 1990-2023 with projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.Translational pediatrics · 2026Article
- Evaluation of usefulness of manual reduction in the management of adult acute irreducible abdominal wall hernia: a study from a community-based teaching hospital.Hernia : the journal of hernias and abdominal wall surgery · 2026Article
- Early prediction of bowel necrosis in incarcerated groin hernia using parsimonious machine learning models: a retrospective cohort study.Hernia : the journal of hernias and abdominal wall surgery · 2026Article
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Abstract
purposeInguinal incarcerated hernia is a common disease in hernia surgery. This study was conducted to collect risk factors for strangulated inguinal hernia and to construct a predictive model to assist surgeons in decision-making.
methodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of the clinical data from patients diagnosed with incarcerated inguinal hernias in the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Huai'an Hospital Affiliated to Xuzhou Medical University, from January 2020 to January 2023. The independent risk factors for the progression of incarcerated inguinal hernias to strangulation were screened in the modeling group using univariate and logistic regression analyses and were used for construction of the nomogram prediction model.
resultsTenderness in the inguinal region (OR = 9.164, 95% CI = 2.540 ~ 33.066), intestinal obstruction (OR = 6.781, 95% CI = 1.568 ~ 29.330), elevated CRP (OR = 1.023, 95% CI = 1.009 ~ 1.037), and elevated neutrophils (OR = 1.253, 95% CI = 1.073 ~ 1.463) were identified as independent risk factors for the progression of incarcerated inguinal hernias to strangulation, while elevated prealbumin (OR = 0.992, 95% CI = 0.986 ~ 0.998) was identified as an independent protective factor. A risk prediction model for the progression of incarcerated inguinal hernias to strangulation was constructed based on these five observational indicators. The model's discrimination was tested by the ROC curve and showed AUC = 0.906, 95% CI = 0.851 ~ 0.962, and P < 0.05. The calibration curve showed good agreement with the ideal curve. The clinical decision curves showed that the model had good clinical utility.
conclusionTenderness in the inguinal region, combined intestinal obstruction, elevated CRP, and elevated neutrophils are independent risk factors for strangulation in incarcerated inguinal hernias, while elevated prealbumin is an independent protective factor. The constructed nomogram prediction model exhibits high sensitivity, specificity, and clinical utility.
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