False Discovery Estimation in Record Linkage.

Integrating data from multiple sources expands research opportunities at low cost. However, due to different data collection processes and privacy constraints, unique identifiers are unavailable. Record linkage (RL) algorithms address this by probabilistically linking records based on partially identifying variables. Since these variables lack the strength to perfectly combine information, RL procedures yield an imperfect set of linked records. Therefore, assessing the false discovery proportion (FDP) in RL is crucial for ensuring the reliability of subsequent analyses. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for estimating the FDP in RL for two overlapping data sets. We synthesize data from their estimated empirical distribution and use it along with real data in the linkage process. Since synthetic records cannot form links with real entities, they provide a means to estimate the amount of falsely linked pairs. Notably, this method applies to all RL techniques and across diverse settings where links and non-links have similar distributions-typical in complex tasks with poorly discriminative linking variables and multiple records sharing similar information while representing different entities. By identifying the FDP in RL and selecting suitable model parameters, our approach enables to assess and improve the reliability of linked data. We evaluate its performance using established RL algorithms and benchmark data applications before deploying it to link siblings from the Netherlands Perinatal Registry, where the reliability of previous RL applications has never been confirmed. Through this application, we highlight the importance of accounting for linkage errors when studying mother-child dynamics in healthcare records.