ArticleBMC public health2025
Projection of temperature-related severe injuries under climate change: a nationwide study of South Korea.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association between ambient temperature and the risk of hospital admission for injury in South Korea.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2026Article
- Correction: Projection of temperature-related severe injuries under climate change: a nationwide study of South Korea.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Association between extreme temperatures and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: A time-stratified case-crossover study in Korea.The journal of climate change and healthArticle
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundFuture warming is projected to increase the burden of severe injuries, which can cause deaths or chronic disabilities. However, the future impact of temperature on severe injuries has not been adequately addressed in previous studies.
methodsWe collected national severe injury data and daily meteorological data between the period 2016-2020 across the entire 250 districts in South Korea. We applied a two-stage approach with a time-stratified case-crossover design to derive temperature-related severe injury risk. Using the projected daily mean temperature from six general circulation models (GCMs), we projected the excess number and fraction of severe injuries due to temperature for the historical (2010-2019) and future (2020-2099) periods under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios.
resultsA total of 237,606 severe injuries during 2016-2020 were identified in this study. We found that exposure to temperature was associated with severe injuries, and these associations are stronger in injuries from transport or contact with chemicals or other substances. Excess severe injuries attributable to temperature were projected to increase to 10.21-15.52% from the 2050s to the 2090s under different SSP scenarios, compared to 8.16% in the historical period. The largest future burden was projected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with excess fraction in the 2090s estimated to be 13.83% for injuries due to contact with chemicals or other substances, 12.56% for transport injuries, and 4.86% for falls.
conclusionThis nationwide study indicates that the temperature rise under the climate change scenario may contribute to an increase in the future burden of injuries in South Korea, particularly transport injuries and injuries due to contact with chemicals or other substances. Our findings may be informative for public health policies aiming at alleviating the health burden in the context of global warming.
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