Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41099585›Full record

ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2026

Determinants of Physicians' Referrals for Suspected Cancer Given a Risk-Prediction Algorithm: Linking Signal Detection and Fuzzy Trace Theory.

Olga Kostopoulou, Bence Pálfi, Kavleen Arora, Valerie Reyna

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Physicians' metacognition in medical decision-making.Neuroscience of consciousness · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Olga KostopoulouImperial College London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9643-0838
Bence PálfiGoldsmiths University of London, UK.
Kavleen AroraImperial College London, UK.
Valerie ReynaCornell University, Cornell, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2851-5797

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BackgroundPrevious research suggests that physicians' inclination to refer patients for suspected cancer is a relatively stable characteristic of their decision making. We aimed to identify its psychological determinants in the presence of a risk-prediction algorithm.MethodsWe presented 200 UK general practitioners with online vignettes describing patients with possible colorectal cancer. Per the vignette, GPs indicated the likelihood of referral (from highly unlikely to highly likely) and level of cancer risk (negligible/low/medium/high), received an algorithmic risk estimate, and could then revise their responses. After completing the vignettes, GPs responded to questions about their values with regard to harms and benefits of cancer referral for different stakeholders, perceived severity of errors, acceptance of false alarms, and attitudes to uncertainty. We tested whether these values and attitudes predicted their earlier referral decisions.ResultsThe algorithm significantly reduced both referral likelihood (

Indexed as

Attitude of Health PersonnelClinical Decision-MakingDecision Support TechniquesGeneral PractitionersReferral and ConsultationAdultColorectal NeoplasmsFemaleFuzzy LogicHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrediction AlgorithmsRisk AssessmentUncertaintyUnited Kingdomalgorithmsdecision makinggistprimary carerisk assessmentrisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID41099585
PMCPMC12705883

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.