ArticleMaterials (Basel, Switzerland)2025
Uncertainty Quantification of Fatigue Life for Cement-Stabilized Cold Recycled Mixtures Using Probabilistic Programming.
Article in Materials (Basel, Switzerland), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The assessment of fatigue life is important for the design of pavement materials because fatigue cracks are one of the most common types of failure in pavement structures. The fatigue test is commonly used to determine the fatigue life. However, there are lots of uncertainties, such as the construction environment and personal operations, during the fatigue test due to the complexity of the pavement materials. Determining the fatigue life of pavement materials under uncertainty is a challenging task. In this study, considering cement-stabilized cold recycled mixtures (CSCRMs) as an example, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method based on PyMC3, a novel and powerful probabilistic programming package, was developed to address the uncertainty in fatigue behavior based on fatigue tests. Probabilistic programming was employed to characterize the uncertainty of fatigue life based on fatigue test data and the fatigue life formula. The uncertainty of fatigue life was quantified by determining the unknown coefficient of the fatigue life formula. Two independent datasets for the CSCRM were used to illustrate and verify the developed method. The coefficients of determination (R
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