ArticleScientific reports2025
Development, validation and visualization of risk prediction model for postoperative shivering in patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy: a real-world retrospective study.
Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypothermia complication during endoscopic thyroidectomy for thyroid cancer.Frontiers in molecular biosciences · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
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Abstract
To develop, validate, and visualize a risk prediction model for postoperative shivering in patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic (VATS) lobectomy, addressing the lack of individualized tools for this high-risk population. This retrospective study analyzed 530 patients undergoing VATS lobectomy from a tertiary hospital in Wuhan (January 2022-December 2023). The data were randomly divided into training set and validation set at a ratio of 7∶3. Patients were stratified into postoperative shivering (n = 198) and non-postoperative shivering (n = 332) groups based on Bedside Shivering Assessment Scale (BSAS) criteria. Logistic regression identified independent risk factors, and a nomograph was developed. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA). An online visualization tool was created for clinical implementation. Postoperative shivering occurred in 198 of 530 patients undergoing VATS lobectomy (37.36%). The logistic regression analysis identified age < 60 years, intraoperative hypothermia, delayed anesthesia recovery, absence of postoperative analgesia, operation duration > 180 min and lower preoperative temperature as significant risk factors for postoperative shivering (P < 0.05). The resulting nomograph demonstrated strong discrimination with AUCs of 0.847 (95%CI: 0.809-0.885) in the training cohort (n = 424) and 0.836 (95%CI: 0.747-0.925) in validation (n = 106), while calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ
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