Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41085187›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2025

Claims-Based Machine Learning Classifier of Modified Rankin Scale in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Mamoon Habib, Rafaella Cazé de Medeiros, Syed Muhammad Ahsan, Aidan McDonald Wojciechowski, Maria A Donahue, Deborah Blacker, Joseph P Newhouse, Lee H Schwamm, M Brandon Westover, Lidia M V R Moura

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Mamoon HabibDepartment of Neurology Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0009-0006-7241-2591
Rafaella Cazé de MedeirosDepartment of Neurology Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6134-1528
Syed Muhammad AhsanDepartment of Neurology Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0009-0005-1206-8023
Aidan McDonald WojciechowskiDepartment of Neurology Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0009-0009-3975-3214
Maria A DonahueDepartment of Neurology Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5217-7794
Deborah BlackerDepartment of Psychiatry Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6107-7376
Joseph P NewhouseDepartment of Health Care Policy Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5837-3203
Lee H SchwammYale School of Medicine New Haven CT USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0592-9145
M Brandon WestoverDepartment of Neurology Beth Israel Lahey Health Medical System Boston MA USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4803-312X
Lidia M V R MouraDepartment of Neurology Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1191-1315

Funding

Comparative Safety of Seizure Prophylaxis within the Medicare ProgramR01AG073410 · NIA · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI Lidia Maria Veras Rocha de Moura · 2021 to 2026
$4.1M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG073410
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWe developed a classifier to infer acute ischemic stroke severity from Medicare claims using the modified Rankin Scale at discharge. The classifier can be used to improve stroke outcomes research and support the development of national surveillance tools.

methodsThis multistate study included all participating centers in the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Program database from 9 US states. This database was linked to Medicare data sets for patients hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke, employing demographics, admission details, and diagnosis codes to create unique patient matches. We included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older who were hospitalized for an initial acute ischemic stroke from January 2018 to December 2020. Using Lasso-penalized logistic regression, we developed and validated a binary classifier for modified Rankin Scale outcomes and as a secondary analysis we used ordinal regression to model the full modified Rankin Scale. Performance was evaluated on held-out test data using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, receiver operator characteristic precision-recall, sensitivity, and specificity.

resultsWe analyzed data from 68 636 eligible patients. The mean age was 79.5 years old. Seventy-seven and a half percent of beneficiaries were White, 14% were Black, 2.6% were Asian, and 2% were Hispanic. The classifier achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve score of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85-0.86), sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.80-0.81), specificity of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.74), and precision-recall area under the curve of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.90-0.91) on the test set.

conclusionsAmong Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for acute ischemic stroke, the claims-based classifier demonstrated excellent performance in area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, precision-recall area under the curve, sensitivity, and acceptable specificity for modified Rankin Scale classification.

Indexed as

Ischemic StrokeMachine LearningAgedAged, 80 and overDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansMaleMedicarePredictive Value of TestsROC CurveSeverity of Illness IndexUnited Statesacute ischemic strokeclassifierMedicaremodified Rankin ScalePaul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Program

Identifiers

PMID41085187
PMCPMC12684556

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.