Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41077138›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Academy of Dermatology2026

Circulating tumor DNA level is associated with time to clinical recurrence in Merkel cell carcinoma: Implications for patient management.

Tomoko Akaike, Manisha Thakuria, Ann W Silk, Daniel S Hippe, Peter Y Ch'en, Song Youn Park, Nicole M Urman, Meliea W Chiu, Hannah Kim, Emily Y Kim and 13 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

23 authors.

Tomoko AkaikeUniversity of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington.
Manisha ThakuriaBrigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts.
Ann W SilkDana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts.
Daniel S HippeFred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington.
Peter Y Ch'enUniversity of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York.
Song Youn ParkUniversity of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
Nicole M UrmanStanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, Palo Alto, California.
Meliea W ChiuStanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, Palo Alto, California.
Hannah KimStanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, Palo Alto, California.
Emily Y KimBrigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; University of Michigan Hospital, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Evan T HallUniversity of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington.
Shailender BhatiaUniversity of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington.
Sunil ReddyStanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, Palo Alto, California.
Michael KrainockNatera, Inc, Austin, Texas.
Alexey AleshinNatera, Inc, Austin, Texas.
Jacob S ChoiNorthwestern University, Chicago, Illinois.
Kenneth Y TsaiMoffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida.
Sue S YomUniversity of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Siegrid S YuUniversity of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Jaehyuk ChoiUniversity of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, Texas.
Sunandana ChandraNorthwestern University, Chicago, Illinois.
Paul T NghiemUniversity of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington.
Lisa C ZabaStanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, Palo Alto, California. Electronic address: lisa.zaba@stanford.edu.

Funding

Translational Bioimaging Core Shared ResourceP30CA015704 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Eric Collisson · 1985 to 2026
$296.4M
Understand & overcome resistance to PD-1P01CA225517 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Cecilia C Yeung · 2019 to 2026
$22.7M
NCI NIH HHS P01 CA225517NCI NIH HHS P30 CA015704
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMerkel cell carcinoma (MCC) recurs in 40% of patients. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is an emerging blood-based biomarker for early MCC recurrence detection.

objectiveTo evaluate the timing and prognostic significance of ctDNA levels relative to clinical recurrence.

methodsThis multicenter prospective study analyzed 669 tumor-informed ctDNA tests from 215 MCC patients (stage I-IV) without clinically evident disease after treatment.

resultsPatients with at least 1 positive ctDNA test were more likely to experience recurrence compared to ctDNA-negative patients (hazard ratio: 18.1, 95% CI: 8.9-36.7), with 77% developing clinically evident disease by 1 year. The median lead time between the first positive ctDNA and clinical recurrence was 2.7 months. Clinical recurrences usually occurred within 3 months for ctDNA levels above 10 molecules/mL, within 6 months for levels between 1-10 molecules/mL, and within 9 months for levels below 1 molecule/mL. LIMITATIONS: In this real-world study, there was variability in timing and frequency of follow-up examinations, imaging, and ctDNA testing, although most patients were followed with both ctDNA and imaging.

conclusionsA positive ctDNA test detects MCC recurrence approximately 3 months earlier than imaging. Negative ctDNA can help reduce imaging frequency through serial ctDNA monitoring, while positive ctDNA warrants closer patient follow-up.

Indexed as

Carcinoma, Merkel CellCirculating Tumor DNANeoplasm Recurrence, LocalSkin NeoplasmsAgedAged, 80 and overBiomarkers, TumorFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingPrognosisProspective StudiesTime FactorsBiomarkers, TumorCirculating Tumor DNAbiomarkercirculating tumor DNActDNAlead timeMerkel cell carcinomarecurrence

Identifiers

PMID41077138
PMCPMC12596136

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.