Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41070156›Full record

ReviewBMJ oncology2025

Clinical prediction models using machine learning in oncology: challenges and recommendations.

Gary S Collins, Mae Chester-Jones, Stephen Gerry, Jie Ma, Joao Matos, Jyoti Sehjal, Biruk Tsegaye, Paula Dhiman

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in BMJ oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

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  17. Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion in Cancer-Associated Atrial Fibrillation: Who, When, and How to Manage Antithrombotic Therapy.Clinical and applied thrombosis/hemostasis : official journal of the International Academy of Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/Hemostasis
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Gary S CollinsDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2772-2316
Mae Chester-JonesUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Stephen GerryUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jie MaUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Joao MatosUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jyoti SehjalUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Biruk TsegayeUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Paula DhimanUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Clinical prediction models are widely developed in the field of oncology, providing individualised risk estimates to aid diagnosis and prognosis. Machine learning methods are increasingly being used to develop prediction models, yet many suffer from methodological flaws limiting clinical implementation. This review outlines key considerations for developing robust, equitable prediction models in cancer care. Critical steps include systematic review of existing models, protocol development, registration, end-user engagement, sample size calculations and ensuring data representativeness across target populations. Technical challenges encompass handling missing data, addressing fairness across demographic groups and managing complex data structures, including censored observations, competing risks or clustering effects. Comprehensive internal and external evaluation requires assessment of both statistical performance (discrimination and calibration) and clinical utility. Implementation barriers include limited stakeholder engagement, insufficient clinical utility evidence, a lack of consideration of workflow integration and the absence of post-deployment monitoring plans. Despite significant potential for personalising cancer care, most prediction models remain unimplemented due to these methodological and translational challenges. Addressing these considerations from study design through post implementation monitoring is essential for developing trustworthy tools that bridge the gap between model development and clinical practice in oncology.

Indexed as

Epidemiology

Identifiers

PMID41070156
PMCPMC12506039

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.