ArticleBMC infectious diseases2025
Association between SARS-CoV-2 levels in urban wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Changsha, Central China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Wastewater-Based Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 for Early Warning of COVID-19 Infection Dynamics.Viruses · 2026Article
- Designing effective SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance system: lessons learnt from sustained monitoring in Delhi, India.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Wastewater-Based Surveillance of Respiratory Viruses in the SARS-CoV-2 Post-Pandemic Period in Mexico.Viruses · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in a central Chinese metropolis: variant responses and correlation with clinical cases.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Long-term wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2: a 5.5-year study reveals correlation with public health indicators and early warning potential during and after the pandemic.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
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Abstract
objectiveTo analyze the monitoring results of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in urban wastewater, and explore the association between SARS-CoV-2 levels in urban wastewater and human Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection.
methodsThe concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in urban wastewater and the number of reported COVID-19 cases were collected in Changsha, Central China, between March 22, 2023 and December 31, 2024. Correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation between the SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater and the number of reported COVID-19 cases. Linear regression and random forest models were used to analyze the predictive function of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater on human COVID-19 cases.
resultsA total of 2,026 wastewater samples were collected. The positive rate of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was 82.0%. The positive rates of target Genes ORFlab and N were 71.7% and 81.4%, respectively. In the same period, 70,525 cases of COVID-19 were reported. The concentrations of target genes ORFlab and N in wastewater exhibited consistent trends (r = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.97) and were positively correlated with the number of reported COVID-19 cases (r = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.70-0.86; r = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.84). The linear regression model showed that the coefficients of determination between the number of reported COVID-19 cases and the levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA (ORFlab, N) in wastewater were 0.63 and 0.59, respectively. In the test set, the random forest model indicated that the correlation coefficients between the number of reported COVID-19 cases and the predicted cases based on the concentration of target Gene ORFlab, target gene N and their combined concentration in wastewater were 0.89 (R
conclusionsWastewater-based monitoring holds significant application value for trend prediction for COVID-19 cases.
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