Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41066346›Full record

ArticlePloS one2025

Four-factor nomogram for early-onset sepsis in preterm neonates: Development and internal validation of a stewardship tool.

Li Guo, Zhiyang Zhang, Chunhui Zhao, Cuncun Shen, Haotian Zhao, Huifen Chen

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Li GuoDepartment of Neonatal, The Fourth Hospital of Shijiazhuang, Shijiazhuang, China.
Zhiyang ZhangDepartment of Intensive Care Unit, Hebei General Hospital, Shijiazhuang, China.
Chunhui ZhaoDepartment of Neonatal, The Fourth Hospital of Shijiazhuang, Shijiazhuang, China.
Cuncun ShenDepartment of Neonatal, The Fourth Hospital of Shijiazhuang, Shijiazhuang, China.
Haotian ZhaoDepartment of Ultrasound, Hebei General Hospital, Shijiazhuang, China.
Huifen ChenDepartment of Neonatal, The Fourth Hospital of Shijiazhuang, Shijiazhuang, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6957-1073

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEarly-onset sepsis (EOS) remains a leading cause of mortality and neurodevelopmental injury in preterm infants, yet widely used tools (e.g., Kaiser EOS Calculator) are not designed for <35-37 weeks' gestation.

objectiveTo develop and internally validate a concise, clinically interpretable nomogram for EOS risk stratification in preterm neonates and to evaluate its potential for antibiotic stewardship.

methodsWe performed a single-center retrospective cohort study (July 2023-June 2024) including 1,059 preterm infants admitted within 72 h of birth, randomly split 7:3 into training (n = 742) and validation (n = 317). Forty-five maternal and neonatal candidates were screened (univariable tests, LASSO), followed by multivariable logistic regression to build the final model and nomogram. Discrimination (AUC), calibration (Brier score, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow), and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were assessed; two biologically plausible interactions were prespecified.

resultsFour routinely available variables-gestational age, birth weight, umbilical cord abnormality, and mechanical ventilation within 72 h-composed the final model. In the validation cohort, AUC was 0.818 (95% CI, 0.767-0.868), Brier score 0.158, and Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.71; DCA showed net benefit across 5-65% risk thresholds. Using a ≥ 0.70 treatment threshold, the model identified 88% of EOS cases while recommending antibiotics for ~10% of infants. A culture-proven-only sensitivity analysis yielded comparable discrimination (AUC 0.819) with a Brier score 0.041.

conclusionsA four-factor nomogram using EMR-available variables accurately stratifies EOS risk in preterm infants and may support risk-based antibiotic decisions while limiting overtreatment. Prospective multicenter external validation is warranted to confirm generalizability and guide implementation.

Indexed as

Antimicrobial StewardshipInfant, PrematureNeonatal SepsisNomogramsSepsisAnti-Bacterial AgentsBirth WeightFemaleGestational AgeHumansInfant, NewbornMaleRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAnti-Bacterial Agents

Identifiers

PMID41066346
PMCPMC12510551

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