Assessing the disease burden of opioid use disorder in western europe: trends, gender differences, and future directions.

Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) has emerged as a significant public health challenge worldwide, and the issue of OUD in Western Europe is equally severe. However, there is a lack of systematic analyses specifically focusing on OUD in Western Europe, with existing research primarily concentrated in North America. This limitation hampers our understanding of the true burden of OUD in Western Europe. This study aims to fill the gap in research regarding the burden of OUD in Western Europe by analyzing the epidemiological characteristics from 1990 to 2021. It seeks to provide a comprehensive assessment of the disease burden in the region and to offer scientific evidence for policy-making. The study is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, utilizing the publicly available database from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It analyzes indicators such as incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across Western European countries. The study employs the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to analyze trends and uses the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the changes in OUD over the next fifteen years. The analysis reveals that the burden of OUD in Western Europe is generally high across all age groups, particularly among those aged 15 to 60. The burden is significantly higher in males than in females, although the rate of increase is faster among females. Between 1990 and 2021, both mortality rates and years lost to disability have increased significantly, with notable growth in the disease burden in certain countries such as Sweden and the United Kingdom. The ARIMA model predicts that the overall burden of OUD in Western Europe will continue to exceed global levels by 2036, with significant variations in trend patterns among individual countries. This study reveals the complex epidemiological characteristics and future trends of OUD in Western Europe, providing important evidence for the development of targeted prevention and intervention strategies. By identifying high-risk populations and key intervention areas, resource allocation can be optimized, enhancing the effectiveness of interventions to effectively address the opioid crisis.