Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41062994›Full record

SynthesisBMC public health2025

Understanding the mechanisms of climate change impact on tuberculosis: a complex systems approach.

Yahya Shadi, Esmaeil Khedmati Morasae, Salman Khazaei, Mahshid Nasehi, Saeed Sharafi, Hossein Asakereh, Leili Tapak, Zohreh Kahramfar, Younes Mohammadi

Abstract readSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Yahya ShadiDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Esmaeil Khedmati MorasaeDepartment of Management Science, Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK.
Salman KhazaeiDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Mahshid NasehiDepartment of Epidemiology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Saeed SharafiCenter for Communicable Diseases Control, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran.
Hossein AsakerehDepartment of Geography, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.
Leili TapakDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Modeling of Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Zohreh KahramfarDepartment of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Younes MohammadiDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran. younesmohamadi@gmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of disability and mortality in many countries and is the leading cause of death from an infectious agent worldwide. While TB is a curable and preventable disease, health systems' ineffectiveness in case finding and appropriate treatment results in 10 million new cases and 1.5 million deaths annually around the globe. Climate change is expected to have a major impact on TB and other infectious diseases, although the mechanisms for this are still poorly understood.

methodsWe undertook a systematic review of Literature published up to September 2024 about the effects of climate Change on TB incidence. The review identified 35 papers that described possible mechanisms for the impact of climate change on TB. We used a complex systems approach called causal loop diagramming to integrate the identified mechanisms into a system map of climate change effects on TB. A panel of experts on TB, epidemiology, and climate change reviewed the map's structure and content.

resultsThe final map shows 6 reinforcing feedback loops and associated chains of complex bio-socio-technical interrelations through which climate change can affect TB risk. The loops included reciprocal relationships between heatwave - energy use, indoors time - airborne disease risk, food access - price, malnutrition - infectious disease, healthcare cost - detection delay, and infectious contact - TB risk that translate to TB infection, directly or indirectly, when activated.

conclusionsThe presented map illustrates and highlights the need for coordinated, multisectoral and complex interventions across that bio-socio-technical system to tackle the nexus of climate change and TB risk. In this context, identifying key leverage points and implementing strategic actions on these points are essential to effectively mitigate climate change-related risks and their impact on TB transmission and incidence.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeTuberculosisGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceClimate changeComplex systemsEnvironmental determinants of healthTuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID41062994
PMCPMC12506164

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.