Disentangling heritability and plasticity effects on Populus fremontii leaf reflectance across a temperature gradient.

Globally, vegetation biodiversity is expected to decline as the rate of plant adaptation struggles to keep pace with rising temperatures. To support conservation efforts through remote sensing, we disentangled the nested effects of genetic and environmental influences on reflectance spectra, leveraging spectroscopy to assess plant adaptations to temperature. Specifically, we quantified the relative effect of plasticity and heritability on Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood) leaf reflectance using clonal replicates propagated from 16 populations and grown across three common gardens spanning a mean annual temperature gradient representing the thermal range of P. fremontii. We used variance partitioning to decompose phenotypic variation expressed in the leaf spectra into genotypic and environmental components to estimate broad-sense heritability. Heritability was strongly expressed in the spectral red edge (~ 680-750 nm) and shortwave infrared (~ 1400-3000 nm), though the heritability peak in the red edge was sensitive to extreme temperatures. By comparing distances of group centroids in principal component space, we determined that P. fremontii intraspecific spectral variation was shaped by the interaction between common garden site conditions and source population. Support vector machine models indicated pronounced environmental influence on spectral variation, as P. fremontii source population and garden location were classified at 71.8% and 92.6% accuracy, respectively. These findings emphasize the utility of reflectance data in separating genetic and environmental influences on plant phenotypes, offering a pathway to scale these insights across broader landscapes and aid in the conservation and management of vulnerable ecosystems in a warming climate.