ArticleScientific reports2025
A disaggregated system dynamics and agent-based modeling of the water-energy-food nexus for optimizing water allocation.
Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Asymmetric water distribution in agriculture is a significant threat to water, energy, and food security in water-limited areas. This work presents an integrated model framework based on System Dynamics and Agent-Based (SD-AB) modeling applying multi-objective evolutionary optimization with the non-dominated sorted genetic algorithm (NSGA)-II, and post-optimization analysis through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) that facilitates sustainable water supply. The SD-AB model simulates the intricate interactions among energy consumption, water supply, agricultural yield, and economic outcomes. The NSGA-II resolves the trade-offs between energy, groundwater utilization, and agriculture net benefit, wherein water allocation to every crop represents decision variables and the groundwater level is treated as a state variable. The solutions are ranked by implementing the AHP technique considering environmental sustainability, water availability, and cost-effectiveness. Local hydrology, agriculture, and socio-economic data are used as model inputs. This work's framework was applied to the Zayandehrud Basin, Iran. The model outputs show that optimal allocation schemes cut water use by 13.1%, increase the average groundwater level by 1 m, decrease energy demand by 23.96%, and enhance environmental water allocation by 355% compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) baseline scenario, which is the current water allocation without optimization. Net agricultural benefit decreases by 22.4%, revealing a trade-off between returns and sustainability. This paper's methodology provides strong policy implications while it is constrained by uncertainty in data and behavioral assumptions. Overall, this paper's methodology represents a useful decision-support tool for sustainable water resource planning in water-scarce basins with possible extension to other socio-environmental situations worldwide.
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