ArticleScientific reports2025
Modeling the transmission dynamics of Mpox virus.
Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Review of Epidemiological Modeling Studies on Monkeypox.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- A fractional-order vaccination model to analyze the dynamics of Mpox Clade I and II with real data.Scientific reports · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The global emergence of human monkeypox (Mpox) necessitates stage-structured transmission models. We develop a compartmental framework with Prodromal, Rash, and Complication stages, identifying critical thresholds through bifurcation analysis. A transcritical bifurcation at [Formula: see text] day[Formula: see text] separates stable disease-free equilibrium ([Formula: see text]) from endemic spread. Normalized sensitivity analysis establishes transmission rate β ([Formula: see text]) as the dominant epidemic driver, with mortality μ ([Formula: see text]) and progression rate [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) as key modulators. Intervention analysis reveals: (1) 22.7% outbreak reduction (95% CI: 19.4-25.1%) through prodromal case isolation (days 0-5) requiring 92% diagnostic accuracy; (2) Linear [Formula: see text] response to transmission controls (0.0398 reduction per 10% β decrease); (3) Phase-adaptive resource allocation (60% to transmission reduction) sustains subcritical operation. The framework advocates real-time β monitoring via wastewater surveillance and [Formula: see text]-optimized diagnostics.
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