Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41050370›Full record

ArticleOsteoarthritis and cartilage open2025

Biochemical biomarkers of knee osteoarthritis progression: Results from the FNIH biomarkers consortium progress OA study.

Jamie E Collins, Douglas Robinson, Nigel Arden, Anne Christine Bay-Jensen, Leticia A Deveza, Morten Karsdal, Christoph Ladel, Thomas A Perry, Christopher J Swearingen, David J Hunter and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Osteoarthritis and cartilage open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Jamie E CollinsBrigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States.
Douglas RobinsonEMD Serono, Billerica, MA, United States.
Nigel ArdenNuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences (NDORMS), University of Oxford, United States.
Anne Christine Bay-JensenNordic Bioscience A/S, Herlev, Denmark.
Leticia A DevezaSydney Musculoskeletal Health, Kolling Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Morten KarsdalNordic Bioscience A/S, Herlev, Denmark.
Christoph LadelCHL4special Consultancy, Darmstadt, Germany.
Thomas A PerryCentre for OA Pathogenesis Versus Arthritis, Kennedy Institute of Rheumatology, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Christopher J SwearingenBiometrics, Biosplice Therapeutics, Inc., San Diego, CA, United States.
David J HunterSydney Musculoskeletal Health, Kolling Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Virginia B KrausDuke Molecular Physiology Institute, Department of Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, United States.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: The Foundation for National Institutes of Health (FNIH) OA Biomarkers Consortium aims to identify and qualify biomarkers to support drug development in knee osteoarthritis (OA). The PROGRESS OA study aims to externally validate prognostic biomarkers identified in the earlier Phase I study. Design: PROGRESS OA included data from the control arms of several completed randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for knee OA. The primary outcome was medial or lateral joint space width loss (JSWL) ≥0.7 ​mm. Secondary outcomes included medial or lateral JSWL combined with symptomatic progression. Nine biochemical biomarkers identified in Phase I were included here. Logistic regression with elastic net selection examined associations between baseline biomarkers and outcomes over 12-36 months, separately for subgroups with available serum, urine, and both serum and urine biomarkers. Results: In total, the study included 827 participants across three RCTs, 159 (19 ​%) with JSWL≥0.7 ​mm. In 681 participants with both serum and urine biospecimens, the combination of serum hyaluronan (HA), urinary C2C-HUSA, body mass index (BMI), and Kellgren-Lawrence grade (KLG) yielded AUC 0.627 (95 ​% CI: 0.573, 0.681) for predicting JSWL≥0.7 ​mm, compared to AUC 0.612 (95 ​% CI: 0.557, 0.667) for BMI and KLG alone. Serum (HA) and urinary C2C-HUSA were consistently selected as predictors of disease progression in elastic net models across the subgroups. Conclusions: Biomarker associations were consistent with Phase I findings, but predictive performance remained modest. Future work in the FNIH OA Biomarkers consortium project will focus on evaluating short term changes in biomarkers to assess their potential for monitoring treatment efficacy.

Indexed as

Biochemical biomarkersPrognostic modelingRandomized controlled trials

Identifiers

PMID41050370
PMCPMC12495463

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.