When crops fail, forests follow: Agricultural shocks and deforestation in Zambia.

As climate change makes agricultural production shocks more frequent and severe, it is vital to understand their effect on farmer welfare, land use, and deforestation. Theoretically, a change in agricultural productivity could increase or decrease deforestation by changing demand for agricultural land and/or through the consumption of forests as a coping strategy. This paper uses the introduction of a crop pest to sub-Saharan Africa to estimate the effect of a negative agricultural productivity shock on deforestation. Using primary household data, we first find that farmers who were exposed to higher levels of fall armyworm saw substantial decreases in yield and food security. Using estimates of fall armyworm suitability in conjunction with machine-learning models of maize yields and deforestation, we find that the introduction of the fall armyworm induced a doubling of the deforestation rate in Zambia in the 3 y following the outbreak. This increase was driven both by increased agricultural land expansion and increased charcoal production as a coping strategy. These responses vary substantially over space. More remote areas experienced 23% lower FAW-induced deforestation compared with the sample average, suggesting that farmers with access to maize and charcoal markets may have increased deforestation as a response. Wealthier areas were also less likely to deforest in response to FAW pressure. In sum, our results suggest that negative agricultural productivity shocks may lead to a negative climate feedback, with farmers engaging in emissions-increasing strategies in response.