ArticleBMC cancer2025
Burden and trends of early-onset gastric cancer in the 11 BRICS countries (2025 expansion): 1990-2021 with projections to 2035.
Article in BMC cancer, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global burden of liver cancer from 1990 to 2021 and 20-year projections: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- Metabolic remodeling by circular RNAs in gastric tumorigenesis: From mechanisms to biomarker discovery (Review).International journal of oncology · 2026Review
- Trends in PCOS Incidence, Prevalence, and DALYs Across Five BRICS Nations, 1990-2050: A Decomposition, Age-Period-Cohort, and Bayesian Forecasting Analysis Based on GBD 2021.International journal of women's health · 2026Article
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Abstract
objectivesGastric cancer (GC) ranks as the fifth most common malignancy and the fifth leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally. Early-onset GC (EOGC), accounting for approximately 10% of all GC cases, remains understudied regarding disease burden trends across the 11 BRICS nations. Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study analyzes the incidence, burden trends, and attributable risk factors of EOGC in the 11 BRICS countries (2025 expansion) and projects its epidemiological trajectory from 2022 to 2035.
methodsData were obtained from the GBD 2021 database. We assessed the EOGC incidence and burden in the 11 BRICS countries (2025 expansion) using both absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant temporal trends in ASRs from 1990 to 2021. Health inequality analysis revealed health inequality patterns in EOGC burden associated with the socio-demographic index (SDI). Decomposition analysis was performed to identify key drivers of EOGC burden variations across the 11 BRICS nations. Additionally, we analyzed trends in population attributable fractions (PAFs) and summary exposure values (SEVs) for relevant risk factors, projected EOGC incidence and burden for 2022-2035 using the BAPC model, and evaluated the sensitivity of each indicator's prediction results using the mean absolute difference (MAD) following secondary prediction with the Nordpred model.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the 11 BRICS countries experienced an 11.87% decline in absolute EOGC cases and a 33.75% reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In 2021, China and India exhibited the highest absolute burden, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had the lowest. The ASRs were highest in China and Russia and lowest in the UAE. A male predominance in EOGC burden was observed, except in Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Joinpoint regression revealed declining trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) across all nations except Egypt (average annual percentage changes [AAPC]
conclusionWhile the overall EOGC burden has declined across the 11 BRICS nations (2025 expansion), member states face distinct epidemiological challenges. Higher-SDI nations and Males bore heavier burdens. Smoking and high-sodium diets were key modifiable risks. By 2035, China and India will face the highest burdens, while South Africa's ASDR will rise. We recommend enhanced regional collaboration -including shared best practices, joint prevention strategies, and harmonized data collection-to address these persistent public health concerns, strengthen future surveillance, and improve comparative analyses.
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