Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41034564›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

Large language models forecast patient health trajectories enabling digital twins.

Nikita Makarov, Maria Bordukova, Papichaya Quengdaeng, Daniel Garger, Raul Rodriguez-Esteban, Fabian Schmich, Michael P Menden

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

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  5. From Integrated Care to Learning Systems.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
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  9. Evaluating Representation Embeddings from LLMs and Time-Series Foundation Models for Wearable Accelerometer-Based Health Prediction.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Nikita Makarov *Roche Innovation Center Munich (RICM), Penzberg, Germany.
Maria Bordukova *Roche Innovation Center Munich (RICM), Penzberg, Germany.
Papichaya QuengdaengComputational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany.
Daniel GargerComputational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany.
Raul Rodriguez-EstebanRoche Innovation Center Basel (RICB), Basel, Switzerland.
Fabian SchmichRoche Innovation Center Munich (RICM), Penzberg, Germany. fabian.schmich@roche.com.
Michael P MendenComputational Health Center, Helmholtz Munich, Munich, Germany. michael.menden@unimelb.edu.au.

Funding

Project 1U19AG024904 · NIA · NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE/RES/EDU · PI Duygu Tosun-Turgut · 2016 to 2026
$226.7M
European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme 950293 - COMBAT-RESNIA NIH HHS U19 AG024904
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Generative artificial intelligence is revolutionizing digital twin development, enabling virtual patient representations that predict health trajectories, with large language models (LLMs) showcasing untapped clinical forecasting potential. We developed the Digital Twin-Generative Pretrained Transformer (DT-GPT), extending LLM-based forecasting solutions to clinical trajectory prediction. DT-GPT leverages electronic health records without requiring data imputation or normalization and overcomes real-world data challenges such as missingness, noise, and limited sample sizes. Benchmarking on non-small cell lung cancer, intensive care unit, and Alzheimer's disease datasets, DT-GPT outperformed state-of-the-art machine learning models, reducing the scaled mean absolute error by 3.4%, 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively. It maintained distributions and cross-correlations of clinical variables, and demonstrated explainability through a human-interpretable interface. Additionally, DT-GPT's ability to perform zero-shot forecasting highlights potential advantages of LLMs as clinical forecasting platforms, proposing a path towards digital twin applications in clinical trials, treatment selection, and adverse event mitigation.

Identifiers

PMID41034564
PMCPMC12488890

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.