Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41031117›Full record

ArticleAJE advances : research in epidemiology2025

The role of estimation in Mendelian randomization: should Mendelian randomization investigations provide estimates?

Benjamin Woolf, Stephen Burgess

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in AJE advances : research in epidemiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Assessing the causal effects of environmental tobacco smoke exposure: a meta-analytic Mendelian randomization study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Reassessing Instrument Strength in Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Proteome-Guided Drug Target Discovery for Periodontitis.Journal of clinical periodontology · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Benjamin WoolfMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Stephen BurgessMRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Funding

Wellcome Trust 225790
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mendelian randomization (MR) makes causal claims by treating genetic variation in an analogous way to randomization in a clinical trial. MR investigations can be viewed as analogous to a randomized encouragement design, in that genetic variants do not determine the precise level of an exposure, but increase liability to it. As such, an MR estimate typically does not represent an achievable or well-defined causal effect in terms of the exposure, as it reflects the impact of a life-long shift in the trajectory of the exposure, which likely differs between individuals. We advocate for MR investigations to be performed to assess evidence for a causal hypothesis, rather than to estimate a well-defined causal quantity. MR estimates are useful to combine evidence across genetic variants, to assess the validity of variants as instruments, to provide confidence intervals, and to compare estimates across outcomes. However, numerical estimates from MR should not be over-interpreted. The value of an MR investigation is not to quantify the magnitude of effect for a well-defined intervention in the exposure. Instead, it provides a distinct source of evidence to increase or decrease confidence in a causal hypothesis, which can be triangulated with evidence from other sources.

Identifiers

PMID41031117
PMCPMC7618185

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.