Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41027157›Full record

ArticleVaccine2025

SARS-CoV-2 spike sequence-based distance as a marker of binding antibody response to COVID-19 vaccines.

Clara P Dominguez Islas, Craig A Magaret, Cindy Molitor, Leonid Serebryannyy, Sandeep Narpala, Mike Castro, Christine M Posavad, Paul C Roberts, Kirsten E Lyke, Robert L Atmar and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Vaccine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Clara P Dominguez IslasFred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA.
Craig A MagaretFred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA.
Cindy MolitorFred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA.
Leonid SerebryannyyVaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Sandeep NarpalaVaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Mike CastroVaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Christine M PosavadFred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA; University of Washington, Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Seattle, WA, USA.
Paul C RobertsDivision of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Kirsten E LykeCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Robert L AtmarDepartments of Medicine and Molecular Virology & Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.
Holly JanesFred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: hjanes@fredhutch.org.
Meagan E DemingCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Funding

Leadership Group for the Infectious Diseases Clinical Research Consortium (IDCRCLG) - Momi-Vax DMID #21-0004 {Supplement #6}UM1AI148684 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI DAVID S STEPHENS · 2020 to 2026
$77.2M
Characterization of seasonal CoV immunity and operationalization of a novel controlled human infection model for the betacoronavirus OC43K08AI170950 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE · PI Meagan Elise Deming · 2023 to 2026
$635k
NIAID NIH HHS K08 AI170950NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI148684
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

COVID-19 vaccines based on ancestral SARS-CoV-2 have proven highly effective at reducing the risk of illness, especially severe disease. Both binding and neutralizing antibodies have been demonstrated to be strong predictors of the level of vaccine efficacy (VE). Both VE and vaccine-induced antibody responses have been shown to be lower against emergent SARS-CoV-2 viruses; therefore, predicting COVID-19 VE against emergent viruses is critical for decision-making regarding the composition of new vaccines. The data needed to enable such prediction are unclear. We report on 728 individuals without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection who received primary vaccination with ancestral-virus-based mRNA and vector-based COVID-19 vaccines and who were boosted in a homologous or heterologous fashion with mRNA, vector, or protein-based COVID-19 vaccines including a bivalent B.1.351 mRNA vaccine. Post-prime and post-boost binding antibody responses were used to evaluate the extent and drivers of variability in these responses to 22 SARS-CoV-2 Spike antigens from viruses that emerged between 2020 and 2021. We evaluated how well proteomic distance between the vaccine and assay Spike antigen predicted the vaccine-induced antibody response. Following primary vaccination, antibody responses varied across Spike antigens and were, on average, 36 % lower per 10-amino acid (AA) difference between the vaccine and assay Spike antigen (95 % CI: 30 % to 43 %). The geometric mean antibody response to a given antigen was nearly perfectly predicted by the sequence-based distance of the antigen to the vaccine. Post-boost responses were less variable across antigens and weakly associated with Spike distance (17 % lower per 10-AA difference; 95 % CI: 14 % to 20 %). The high variability in binding antibodies across individuals was only partially explained by participant characteristics. Given that populations now have experienced multiple rounds of prior vaccination and infection, measurement of vaccine-induced antibody responses from representative populations will likely be needed to predict the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against future strains.

Indexed as

Antibodies, ViralCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesSARS-CoV-2Spike Glycoprotein, CoronavirusAdultAgedAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibody FormationFemaleHumansImmunization, SecondaryMaleMiddle AgedVaccine EfficacyYoung AdultAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19 VaccinesSpike Glycoprotein, Coronavirusspike protein, SARS-CoV-2AntibodiesBoostersCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2SequencingSpikeVaccinesViral variants

Identifiers

PMID41027157
PMCPMC12812481

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.