ArticleCirculation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology2025
Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation From the ECG in the Community Using Deep Learning: A Multinational Study.
Article in Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Artificial Intelligence for Prediction and Detection of Atrial Fibrillation from Sinus-Rhythm Electrocardiograms and Ambulatory Monitoring.Biomedicines · 2026Review
- The Telehealth Network of Minas Gerais, Brazil: two decades of scaling and sustainability.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Artificial Intelligence Applied to Electrocardiograms Recorded in Sinus Rhythm for Detection and Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation: A Scoping Review.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Review
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10 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundWe aimed to refine and validate a deep neural network model from the ECG to predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk, using samples from diverse backgrounds: the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), UK Biobank, and Estudo Longitudinal da Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). We compared the model's performance to the clinical Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium (CHARGE-AF) risk score and evaluated the association with other cardiovascular outcomes.
methodsThe ECG-derived deep-learning prediction of AF (ECG-AF) model was refined using 60% of FHS samples free of AF. Its performance was then tested in the remaining FHS samples, UK Biobank, and ELSA-Brasil, with discrimination assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The association of ECG-AF with cardiovascular outcomes was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.
resultsThe study sample included 10 097 FHS participants (mean age 53±12 years; 54.9% women), 49 280 participants from the UK Biobank (mean age 64±8 years, 47.9% women), and 12 284 participants from ELSA-Brasil (mean age 53±8 years, 54.7% women). The ECG-AF model showed moderate discrimination for incident AF (area under the curve, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.80-0.84]) in the FHS, comparable to the CHARGE-AF score (area under the curve, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.81-0.85]), and incremental when combined (area under the curve, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.83-0.87]). In UK Biobank and ELSA-Brasil, combining ECG-AF and CHARGE also improved prediction. Higher ECG-AF scores were associated with increased risks of heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality in all 3 cohorts.
conclusionsIn multinational cohort studies, the single-input ECG-AF deep neural network model demonstrated good performance in predicting AF and other cardiovascular outcomes, comparable to a multivariable clinical risk score, with improved performance when combined.
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