ArticleNature communications2025
Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Associations between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tuberculosis incidence in China: a nationwide study.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Cross-national prediction of imported dengue risk in Northeast Asia using climate, hydrological, and viral epidemiological indicators.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- ENSO Impact on Global Chikungunya Virus Transmission, 2008-2024: A Multi-Country Distributed-Lag Time-Series Analysis.Viruses · 2026Article
- Coupled Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability modulates cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa, enabling long-lead seasonal forecasts.Science advances · 2026Article
- Article
- Climate change and the rising threat of vector-borne diseases in the Andes.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Climate variability and dengue incidence in southern Ecuador: an ecological analysis in two contrasting climatic settings (2019-2024).BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Frequent introductions and climate suitability drive increasing dengue risk in Florida.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Present and Future of Mosquito-Borne Disease Control in Europe with a Specific Focus on the Mediterranean.Insects · 2026Review
- Epidemiological Characteristics of Dengue Disease in Mexico (2014-2025): A Descriptive Analysis of a Hyperendemic Country.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- "Climatic determinants" and simple thresholds for dengue early warning in Vietnam: a One Health perspective.Science in One Health · 2026Review
- From El Niño forecasts to proportionate public health action: a forecast-to-action framework for climate-related health risks.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
22 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Global climate variability has been linked with some of the largest dengue outbreaks, including the record-breaking 2023-2024 epidemic, but the understanding of their mechanism and evidence for their association is lacking. By incorporating reported dengue cases and climate data from 57 countries across the Americas and Asia from 1980 to 2024, we unpacked the global climate teleconnection and quantifying its impact on dengue cases. We revealed that the heterogeneity in the association between global climate variability and dengue cases across regions is affected by the strength and types of global climate teleconnections with temperature and precipitation. By controlling for the heterogeneity, 63% of the variation in dengue cases can be attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation fluctuations, with higher values in endemic regions. The 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24 El Niño events were estimated to have induced an additional 0.2, 1.4, 4.1, and 9.6 million dengue cases, respectively, over regular seasonal patterns. Due to human-induced warming, El Niño events and teleconnections may cause a 39.0-81.7% increase in cumulative cases in 2020-2099. Our findings quantify the association between global climate variability and dengue epidemics and caution about the potential future risk.
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