ArticleNature communications2025
Impact of vaccination timing and coverage on measles near elimination dynamics: a mathematical modelling analysis.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the Value of Combination Vaccines: A Methodological Framework.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Review
- Mobility between communities can reduce the impact of measles intervention during an outbreak: a mathematical modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The Joint Committee for Vaccination and Immunisation recommended to implement an earlier second dose for the Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) vaccine starting in 2026 in the United Kingdom. We investigated the impact of these changes on measles transmission in England. Using an age- and region-stratified mathematical model, we simulated outbreaks with different vaccination schedules and coverage, using electronic health records and outbreak data from 2010 to 2019. Delivering the second MMR dose at 24 months reduced cases by 11.86% (IQR: -3.3; 23.81%) compared to the current schedule (3 years and 4 months) and showed a 22.39% (IQR: 10.05; 32.79%) reduction of cases if achieving the same coverage as the first MMR dose. The effect of delivering an earlier second MMR was lower when waning of vaccine-induced immunity was included (5.28% (-10.92; 19.63%)). Increasing first-dose coverage by 0.5% annually yielded slightly better outcomes than an earlier second dose (14.68% reduction, IQR:1.19; 27.49.9%). While improving first-dose uptake had the greatest impact, it may be difficult to achieve. Thus, an earlier second MMR dose can be a feasible alternative to reduce the measles burden in England where measles transmission follows typical near-elimination dynamics.
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Registered trials
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