ArticleTobacco regulatory science2015
Markov Modeling to Estimate the Population Impact of Emerging Tobacco Products: A Proof-of-Concept Study.
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Article in Tobacco regulatory science, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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21citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Association Between Initial Use of e-Cigarettes and Subsequent Cigarette Smoking Among Adolescents and Young Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA pediatrics · 2017Pooled it
- Transitions in cigarette and ENDS use in the PATH Study: a multistate transition model analysis of adults in 2021-2022 compared to previous years.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Improving Prediction of Tobacco Use Over Time: Findings from Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2024Article
- The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Associations of Demographics, Dependence, and Biomarkers With Transitions in Tobacco Product Use in a Cohort of Cigarette Users and Dual Users of Cigarettes and E-cigarettes.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023Article
- E-cigarettes and smoking cessation among adolescent smokers.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The Impact of Current Tobacco Product Use Definitions on Estimates of Transitions Between Cigarette and ENDS Use.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Article
- The Impact of Menthol Cigarette Flavor in the U.S.: Cigarette and ENDS Transitions by Sociodemographic Group.American journal of preventive medicine · 2022Article
- Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model.Population health metrics · 2021Article
- Estimating the Population Health Impact of Recently Introduced Modified Risk Tobacco Products: A Comparison of Different Approaches.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2021Review
- Transitions between cigarette, ENDS and dual use in adults in the PATH study (waves 1-4): multistate transition modelling accounting for complex survey design.Tobacco control · 2020Article
- Modeling Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Opioid-Related Morbidity and Mortality in the US.JAMA network open · 2020Article
- Overview of tobacco use transitions for population health.Tobacco control · 2020Article
- A modeling approach to gauging the effects of nicotine vaping product use on cessation from cigarettes: what do we know, what do we need to know?Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2019Article
- Preventing Smoking Progression in Young Adults: the Concept of Prevescalation.Prevention science : the official journal of the Society for Prevention Research · 2019Article
- Transitions in electronic cigarette use among adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves 1 and 2 (2013-2015).Tobacco control · 2019Article
- Risk Assessment for Tobacco Regulation.Tobacco regulatory science · 2019Article
- Transitions in Tobacco Product Use by U.S. Adults between 2013⁻2014 and 2014⁻2015: Findings from the PATH Study Wave 1 and Wave 2.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Caroline O CobbCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Andrea C VillantiCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Amanda L GrahamCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Jennifer L PearsonCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Allison M GlasserCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Jessica M RathCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Cassandra A StantonCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
David T LevyCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
David B AbramsCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Raymond NiauraCaroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
Funding
Tissue Culture Shared ResourceP30CA051008 · NCI · GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY · PI MARCUS S NOEL · 1990 to 2026
$71.5MLeadership and Administrative Core (p 188-304)U54CA189222 · NCI · WESTAT, INC. · PI NIAURA, RAYMOND, ROSENTHAL, JEANNE · 2014 to 2018
$8.5MNCI NIH HHS P30 CA051008NCI NIH HHS U54 CA189222
Abstract
Objectives: To develop a modeling tool to assess the population impact of emerging tobacco products and demonstrate its utility. Methods: Discrete state Markov models were developed using TreeAge Pro 2014 to operationalize and estimate current cigarette and e-cigarette use patterns in the US population (including never and former use). State transition probabilities were calculated from a longitudinal survey of US young adults and adjusted using other nationally representative data. Results: Over 10 years, the adjusted base case model approximated national cigarette smoking and former use prevalence and predicted e-cigarette and dual use prevalence between 1% and 2%. Conclusions: This proof-of-concept study provides a heuristic tool to operationalize aspects of the US Food and Drug Administration's new public health standard regarding the impact of new tobacco products on use of existing products.
Indexed as
cigarettese-cigaretteMarkovsimulationtobacco
Identifiers
PMID
41018803PMC
PMC12462019What OpenQuestion holds
Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
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Registered trials
None linked
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.