Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41017903›Full record

ArticleInterface focus2025

Improving modelling for epidemic response: a progress update from a community of UK infectious disease modellers.

Katharine Sherratt, Anna C Carnegie, Adam Kucharski, Anne Cori, Carl A B Pearson, Edward M Hill, Elizabeth Fearon, Emily Nightingale, Julian Villabona-Arenas, Li Pi and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Interface focus, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Katharine SherrattCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2049-3423
Anna C CarnegieSocial, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, King's College London, London, UK.
Adam KucharskiCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Anne CoriMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8443-9162
Carl A B PearsonAtlantic Coast Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Analytics, University of North Carolina, Wilmington, NC, USA.
Edward M HillCivic Health Innovation Labs and Institute of Population Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2992-2004
Elizabeth FearonInstitute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5574-251X
Emily NightingaleCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Julian Villabona-ArenasCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Li PiBig Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Nicholas G DaviesCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1740-1412
Sabine van ElslandMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Sebastian FunkCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2842-3406
Yang LiuCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Sam AbbottCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We reflect on the sustainability of modelling infectious disease outbreaks from the perspective of modelling as a field of practice. We formed a community of practice among UK infectious disease modellers who had contributed to the UK COVID-19 response. We previously used a participatory workshop approach to highlight issues in the infrastructure and incentives for outbreak modelling, and synthesized our experience into a set of 12 specific recommendations. Here, we track changes in the field of infectious disease modelling 1 year later, collecting the quantitative and qualitative views of change among 14 participants. We found participants continued to highlight a lack of ongoing, sufficient or appropriate action to develop outbreak modelling capacity in the UK, while positively noting collaborations among public health facing institutions. We emphasize the under-prioritization of funding for outbreak modelling outside of emergency response periods, and the continuation of unsustainable working practices. Correcting this is crucial to supporting evidence-based public health policy for outbreak preparedness and response.

Indexed as

epidemicinfrastructuremetasciencemodellingoutbreak responsepandemic preparedness

Identifiers

PMID41017903
PMCPMC12464574

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.