ArticleEntropy (Basel, Switzerland)2025
Application of the Three-Group Model to the 2024 US Elections.
Article in Entropy (Basel, Switzerland), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Computational and Statistical Physics Approaches for Complex Systems and Social Phenomena.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Political polarization in Western democracies has accelerated in the last decade, with negative social consequences. Research across disciplines on antecedents, manifestations and societal impacts is hindered by social systems' complexity: their constant flux impedes tracing causes of observed trends and prediction of consequences, hampering their mitigation. Social physics models exploit a characteristic of complex systems: what seems chaotic at one observation level may exhibit patterns at a higher level. Therefore, dynamic modeling of complex systems allows anticipation of possible events. We use this approach to anticipate 2024 US election results. We consider the highly polarized Democrats and Republicans, and Independents fluctuating between them. We generate average group-stance scenarios in time and explore how polarization and depolarization might have affected 2024 voting outcomes. We find that reducing polarization might advantage the larger voting group. We also explore ways to reduce polarization, and their potential effects on election results. The results inform regarding the perils of polarization trends, and on possibilities of changing course.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.