The Impact of Heat Stress on Dairy Cattle: Effects on Milk Quality, Rumination Behaviour, and Reticulorumen pH Response Using Machine Learning Models.

Heat stress has a major impact on dairy cow health and productivity, especially during early lactation. Conventional heat stress monitoring methods frequently rely on single indicators, such as the temperature-humidity index (THI), which may miss subtle physiological and metabolic responses. This study presents a novel threshold-based classification framework that integrates biologically meaningful combinations of environmental, behavioural, and physiological variables to detect early-stage heat stress responses in dairy cows. Six composite heat stress conditions (C1-C6) were developed using real-time THI, milk temperature, reticulorumen pH, rumination time, milk lactose, and milk fat-to-protein ratio. The study applied and assessed five supervised machine learning models (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF0, Neural Network (NN), and an Ensemble approach) trained on daily datasets gathered from early-lactation dairy cows fitted with intraruminal boluses and monitored through milking parlour sensor systems. The dataset comprised approximately 36,000 matched records from 200 cows monitored over 60 days. The highest classification performance was observed for RF and NN models, particularly under C1 (THI > 73 and milk temperature > 38.6 °C) and C6 (THI > 74 and milk temperature > 38.7 °C), with AUC values exceeding 0.90. SHAP analysis revealed that milk temperature, THI, rumination time, and milk lactose were the most informative features across conditions. This integrative approach enhances precision livestock monitoring by enabling individualised heat stress risk classification well before clinical or production-level consequences emerge.