Global trends and projection of aetiology-based chronic kidney disease incidence from 1990 to 2030: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling study.

objectivesIn order to prevent chronic kidney disease (CKD), it is crucial to identify temporal trends in CKD incidence at the global level, both past and future.

designAn observational cross-sectional study. SETTING AND

participantsWe retrieved data on annual cases of CKD from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database for the period between 1990 and 2021. To assess the trends in age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) of CKD, we applied the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for both observed data (1990-2021) and projected data (2022-2030). Bayesian age-period-cohort models were employed to predict CKD ASRs and case numbers through 2030.

resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the number of newly diagnosed CKD cases worldwide rose from 7 758 599 (95% CI: 7 721 790 to 7 795 410) to 19 950 853 (95% CI: 19 914 040 to 19 987 670). During that same period, the CKD ASR increased from 145.66 to 252.93 per 100 000 people, with an AAPC of 0.74% (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.75). By 2030, the number of CKD cases is projected to reach 25 057 700 (95% credible interval (CrI: 23 389 630 to 26 725 770), and the ASR is expected to increase to 297.62 per 100 000 (AAPC: 0.15%, 95% CrI: 0.14 to 0.16). The most significant ASR increases are expected among individuals with type two diabetes mellitus (AAPC: 0.17%, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.34), hypertension (AAPC: 0.17%, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.28%), older adults (aged ≥60) (AAPC: 0.21%, 95% CI: 0.20 to 0.22) and individuals in middle- (AAPC: 0.19%, 95% CI: 0.11 to 0.27) and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) countries (AAPC: 0.18%, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.27). Of the six WHO regions, the largest increase is predicted to occur in the Western Pacific region by 2030 (AAPC: 0.21%, 95% CrI: 0.11 to 0.32), followed by Eastern Mediterranean (AAPC: 0.18%, 95% CrI: 0.06 to 0.31). Of the 204 countries and territories examined, 201 showed an increasing trend between 1990 and 2030, while only three experienced a decrease.

conclusionCKD incidence rates and case numbers are predicted to increase globally through 2030. Women; people with type two diabetes mellitus and hypertension; people over 60 years of age; people living in high, middle and high-middle-SDI countries, as well as those from the region of the USA, Europe and the Western Pacific, are projected to have the highest ASR of CKD in 2030. This highlights the need to consider these subgroups in future plans for global control of CKD.