Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40997295›Full record

ArticleJCO clinical cancer informatics2025

Development of Machine Learning Systems to Predict Cancer-Related Symptoms With Validation Across a Health Care System.

Baijiang Yuan, Muammar Kabir, Jiang Chen He, Yuchen Li, Benjamin Grant, Sharon Narine, Mattea Welch, Sho Podolsky, Ning Liu, Rami Ajaj and 13 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JCO clinical cancer informatics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

23 authors.

Baijiang YuanDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0009-0006-1027-7224
Muammar KabirCancer Digital Intelligence, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-9828-7203
Jiang Chen HeDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Yuchen LiDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0009-0003-4292-7699
Benjamin GrantCancer Digital Intelligence, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Sharon NarineCancer Digital Intelligence, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Mattea WelchCancer Digital Intelligence, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Sho PodolskyInstitute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada.
Ning LiuInstitute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-9215-475X
Rami AjajDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-6491-9241
Luna Jia ZhanDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-2534-7230
Aly FawzyDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Janine XuDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Yuhua ZhangBiostatistics Department, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Vivien YuDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Wei XuBiostatistics Department, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Rahul G KrishnanDepartment of Computer Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Steven GallingerOntario Institute for Cancer Research, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-5004-8393
Kelvin K W ChanInstitute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-2501-3057
Monika K KrzyzanowskaDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-5533-7418
Tran TruongCancer Digital Intelligence, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-2427-743X
Geoffrey LiuDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-2603-7296
Robert C GrantDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-9821-0377

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeCancer and its treatment cause symptoms. In this study, we aimed to develop machine learning (ML) systems that predict future symptom deterioration among people receiving treatment for cancer and then validate the systems in a simulated deployment across an entire health care system.

methodsWe trained and tested ML systems that predict a deterioration in nine patient-reported symptoms within 30 days after treatments for aerodigestive cancers, using internal electronic health record (EHR) data at Princess Margaret Cancer Centre (3,229 patients; 20,267 treatments). The primary performance metric was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The best-performing systems in the held-out internal test set were then externally validated across 82 cancer centers in Ontario (12,079 patients; 77,003 treatments) by adapting techniques from meta-analysis.

resultsThe best ML systems predicted symptom deterioration with AUROCs ranging from 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.69) for dyspnea to 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.75) for drowsiness in the internal test cohort. Treatments flagged as high-risk were significantly associated with future symptom deterioration (odds ratios [ORs], 2.53-6.56; all

conclusionML can predict future symptoms among people with cancer from routine EHR data, which could guide personalized interventions. Heterogeneous performance across centers must be considered when systems are deployed across a health care system.

Indexed as

Machine LearningNeoplasmsAgedDelivery of Health CareElectronic Health RecordsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID40997295
PMCPMC12487662

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.