Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40996637›Full record

SynthesisAdvances in therapy2025

Meta-analysis to Investigate the Correlation Between Event-Free Survival and Overall Survival in Patients with Resectable Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Dandan Zheng, Ali Mojebi, Yuexin Tang, Braden Hale, Sanjay Merchant, Sichen Liu, Sam Keeping

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Advances in therapy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Dandan ZhengValue and Implementation, Outcomes Research, Merck & Co., Inc., 126 East Lincoln Avenue, Rahway, NJ, 07065, USA. dandan.zheng@merck.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6460-4036
Ali MojebiEvidence Synthesis, Precision AQ, Vancouver, BC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2318-8627
Yuexin TangValue and Implementation, Outcomes Research, Merck & Co., Inc., 126 East Lincoln Avenue, Rahway, NJ, 07065, USA.
Braden HaleEvidence Synthesis, Precision AQ, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Sanjay MerchantValue and Implementation, Outcomes Research, Merck & Co., Inc., 126 East Lincoln Avenue, Rahway, NJ, 07065, USA.
Sichen LiuEvidence Synthesis, Precision AQ, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Sam KeepingEvidence Synthesis, Precision AQ, Vancouver, BC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4281-1536

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionWhile overall survival (OS) is a widely accepted trial endpoint in oncology, survival data are often immature in early-stage populations. Alternative time-to-event outcomes have been considered by regulatory and reimbursement agencies to allow for early patient access. Event-free survival (EFS) has shown strong correlations with OS in patients with locally advanced (LA) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and within the subgroup with unresectable tumors. With novel neoadjuvant and adjuvant immunotherapies being investigated in resectable LA-HNSCC, this study aimed to assess the trial-level correlation of EFS and OS in patients with resectable LA-HNSCC.

methodsA systematic review (October 29, 2024) identified randomized controlled trials evaluating surgery with adjuvant therapy, neoadjuvant therapy, or both in patients with resectable LA-HNSCC. Trials reporting hazard ratios (HRs) or Kaplan-Meier curves for OS (time from randomization to death) and EFS (time from randomization to disease progression/recurrence or death) were eligible for the analysis. Base case included trials comparing neoadjuvant therapy + surgery + adjuvant therapy versus surgery + adjuvant therapy. Sensitivity analyses included models with trials comparing broader regimens (e.g., adjuvant therapy versus adjuvant therapy), excluding an outlier trial and restricting to publications after 2004. Correlations were measured between log(EFS HR) and log(OS HR) using regression models, with their strength measured using Pearson's correlation coefficient (R).

resultsThe review included 45 trials, with 20 trials qualifying for correlation analysis. R (95% confidence interval) was 0.91 (0.36, 0.99) in the base case (n = 5 trials) and 0.41 (-0.01, 0.71; n = 20), 0.78 (0.52, 0.91; n = 19), and 0.76 (0.41, 0.92; n = 13) in the three sensitivity analyses, respectively.

conclusionStrong trial-level correlations were observed between EFS and OS, suggesting EFS is a valid surrogate for OS in patients with resectable LA-HNSCC, particularly in trials investigating neoadjuvant therapy + surgery + adjuvant therapy.

Indexed as

Head and Neck NeoplasmsSquamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and NeckDisease-Free SurvivalHumansNeoadjuvant TherapyProgression-Free SurvivalRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicAdjuvant therapyCorrelation analysisEvent-free survivalHead and neck squamous cell carcinomaLocally advanced cancerNeoadjuvant therapyOverall survivalResectable tumorsSurrogate endpointSystematic literature review

Identifiers

PMID40996637
PMCPMC12579675

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.