Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40995332›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental research letters : ERL [Web site]2025

Projected population exposure to dangerous heat stress around Lake Victoria under a high-end climate change scenario.

Delphine Ramon, Clare Heaviside, Oscar Brousse, Charles Simpson, Irene Amuron, Eddie Wasswa Jjemba, Jonas Van de Walle, Wim Thiery, Nicole P M van Lipzig

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site], 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Delphine RamonDepartment of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering Science, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9467-6236
Clare HeavisideInstitute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0263-4985
Oscar BrousseInstitute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7364-710X
Charles SimpsonInstitute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9356-5833
Irene AmuronRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Eddie Wasswa JjembaRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Jonas Van de WalleDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7819-7419
Wim ThieryDepartment of Hydrology and Hydraulic engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5183-6145
Nicole P M van LipzigDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2899-4046

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent global temperature increases and extreme heat events have raised concerns about their impact on health, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa. This study assesses future heat stress and population exposure in the Lake Victoria region under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, using a convection-permitting climate model, heat stress indices (humidex and heat index), and high-resolution population projections under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, interpreted here as the high-end of the climate change signal. Results indicate a substantial increase in the duration of dangerous heat stress. By the end of the century, up to 122 million people, or around 44

Indexed as

climate changeconvection-permittingheat stressLake Victoriapopulation exposureregional climate modelling

Identifiers

PMID40995332
PMCPMC12456429

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.