Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40994818›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2026

Quantifying mpox transmission and control: A regional analysis of vaccination strategies in East Africa.

Musa Rabiu, Bosede Fagbemigun, Sunday Fadugba, Michael Shatalov, Kekana Malesela, Adejimi Adeniji

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Musa RabiuDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa.
Bosede FagbemigunDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo, Nigeria.
Sunday FadugbaDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria.
Michael ShatalovDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa.
Kekana MaleselaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa.
Adejimi AdenijiDepartment of Computer Science & Information Technology, La Trobe University, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Africa is home to the endemic mpox disease, especially in the tropical rain-forest regions of Central and West Africa. Although it is mostly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, reports of it have also come from other neighboring African nations. To understand the dynamics of mpox, we studied its spread in Burundi, Uganda, Rwanda, Congo, and Kenya before and after the implementation of interventions. Using a Bayesian framework, a simple mathematical model of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered type was calibrated and fitted to the 2022 mpox data covering the period before the introduction of intervention strategies. The model was then re-stratified to incorporate key epidemiological features, including vaccination with imperfect efficacy, partial immunity, exposure, and demographics. The transmission of mpox varied throughout East Africa, with Uganda exhibiting the highest basic reproduction number

Indexed as

AfricaBayesian frameworkControlMathematical modellingMpoxPartial immunityReproduction numberVaccination

Identifiers

PMID40994818
PMCPMC12455097

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.