ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2026
Modeling the transmission dynamics and control strategies during the 2017 diphtheria outbreak in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiology and clinical profile of suspected diphtheria cases in the Governorate of Ibb, Yemen: a 6-year retrospective analysis (2020-2025).IJID regions · 2026Article
- Epidemiological trend and clinical features of diphtheria in Hajjah Governorate, Yemen: a seven-years retrospective analysis (2018-2024).BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Spatial distribution of diphtheria cases during the 2022/2023 outbreak in Kano State, Northern Nigeria.PloS one · 2026Article
- A cross-sectional study of seroprevalence in Armenia, 2025: measles, mumps, rubella, and diphtheria.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
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Abstract
Diphtheria has resurged globally, including in Indonesia, despite widespread vaccination since the 1970s. Knowledge gaps persist in understanding contemporary transmission drivers and effective outbreak control, especially in densely populated areas like Jakarta. We analyzed the 2017 Jakarta outbreak data and developed a compartmental model incorporating estimates of population susceptibility and asymptomatic carriers. Key epidemiological parameters were estimated, and various control measures were simulated. Our study found overall diphtheria susceptibility at 12.9 % (95 % CrI: 8.6 %-19.0 %) and 28.0 % (95 % CrI: 20.5 %-36.0 %) in children under 5 under different modeling scenarios, which were below the 'herd immunity threshold'. We estimated asymptomatic carriers to be highly prevalent, substantially contributing to the reproduction number. The model indicated that contact tracing and treating suspected cases and their contacts were more effective in preventing new cases than catch-up vaccination alone. These findings provide valuable insights for future outbreak management strategies in similar settings.
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