ArticleInternational journal of surgery (London, England)2026
Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990-2050: a systematic comparative analysis based on retrospective cross-sectional of GBD 2021 and WHO surveillance systems.
Article in International journal of surgery (London, England), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Prognostic factors and predictive modeling of in-hospital mortality among MDRO-positive inpatients: a retrospective cohort and GBD MICROBE study.Antonie van Leeuwenhoek · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national tuberculosis burden associated with six suboptimal dietary exposures from 1990 to 2021: a comparative risk assessment based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Integrative computational approaches, molecular docking, and dynamic simulations reveal the antimycobacterial activity of fisetin as a potential inhibitor of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.Journal of computer-aided molecular design · 2026Article
- Article
- Comparison of HIV/AIDS death estimates for 2019 between GBD 2019 and WHO mortality databases.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- The global burden of tuberculosis attributable to diet high in processed meat from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
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12 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis (TB) persists as a leading global health threat. Current surveillance is fragmented, and the surgical burden of drug-resistant forms remains poorly quantified.
methodsUsing GBD 2021 (1990-2050) and WHO-GHO (2000-2021), we estimated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 204 countries by age, sex, and four TB subtypes: latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB). We compared WHO and GBD figures in eight high-burden countries, applied joinpoint regression to project trends, and quantified risk-factor contributions.
resultsIn 2021, global TB rates per 100,000 were: prevalence 236.14 (95% UI 214.51-260.20), incidence 103.00 (92.21-114.91), deaths 13.96 (12.61-15.72), and DALYs 580.26 (522.37-649.82). Sociodemographic index (SDI) gradients were steepest for XDR-TB. Smoking, high alcohol use and elevated fasting glucose explained >0.1% of DS-TB DALYs each. WHO-GBD mortality diverged in Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; incidence differed markedly in Indonesia and the Philippines. Projections indicate rising mortality after 2030 in Indonesia and the Western Pacific under high-risk scenarios.
conclusionsXDR-TB is emerging as the fastest-growing threat. Discrepancies between WHO and GBD compromise resource allocation; harmonisation is urgently needed, especially for surgical services planning in Indonesia and the Western Pacific.
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