ArticleNature communications2025
The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Warming-driven rise in soil moisture entropy signals growing instability risk in the Asian Water Tower.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Recent Advances in Phase-Change-Coupled Interfacial Evaporation: Thermal-Mass Management and Multifunctional Applications.Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- A Global Imprint of Gadolinium-Based Contrast Agents Used in Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Drinking Water.Environmental science & technology · 2026Article
- Interactions between the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus Acaulospora delicata, wheat, and aphids under drought stress.Mycorrhiza · 2026Article
- Systematic Material Optimization for Membrane Distillation Resource Recovery through Materials Informatics, Life Cycle Assessment, and Industrial Scalability.ACS ES&T engineering · 2026Article
- Nature vs. nurture: parental care cushions agricultural drought impacts on child health in South Africa.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene.Nature communications · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Access to water is crucial for all aspects of life. Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity. However, the timing and hotspot regions of unprecedented water scarcity are unknown. Here, we estimate the Time of First Emergence (ToFE) of drought-driven water scarcity events, referred to as "Day Zero Drought" (DZD), which arises from hydrological compound extremes, including prolonged rainfall deficits, reduced river flow, and increasing water consumption. Using a probabilistic framework and a large ensemble of climate simulations, we attribute the timing and likelihood of DZD events to human influence. Many regions, including major reservoirs, may face high risk of DZD by the 2020s and 2030s. Despite model and scenario uncertainties, consistent DZD hotspots emerge across the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of North America. Urban populations are particularly vulnerable at the 1.5 °C warming level. The length of time between successive DZD events is shorter than the duration of DZD, limiting recovery periods and exacerbating water scarcity risks. Therefore, more proactive water strategies are urgently needed to avoid severe societal impacts of DZD.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.