ArticleBMJ open2025
Worldwide trends in mortality for aortic aneurysm from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036: a systematic analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Idiopathic thoracic aortic aneurysm in a dog with 2:1 atrioventricular block.The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne · 2026Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
objectivesTo analyse global trends in aortic aneurysm mortality from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends through 2036, examining variations across Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, regions, nations, age groups and sexes.
designWe conducted a comprehensive analysis using mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.
settingData were obtained from the GBD 2021 database, covering 204 countries and territories across 21 GBD regions.
participantsIndividuals with aortic aneurysm-related mortality between 1990 and 2021.
main outcome measuresAbsolute deaths and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2021, stratified by SDI quintiles, GBD regions and individual nations. Temporal trends were quantified using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and net drift, while decomposition analysis assessed contributions of population ageing, growth and epidemiological changes to mortality patterns. Risk factor attribution across regions and SDI levels was examined, alongside projections of ASMR and deaths through 2036 using the Nordic prediction method.
resultsGlobal aortic aneurysm deaths increased from 88.35 thousand in 1990 to 153.93 thousand in 2021, while ASMR decreased from 2.54 to 1.86 per 100 000 (EAPC: -1.28%). High SDI regions showed significant ASMR declines (EAPC: -1.982%), while low-middle SDI regions experienced increases (EAPC: 1.272%). Marked regional variations were observed, with Australasia showing the largest decrease (EAPC: -4.114%) and Central Asia the highest increase (EAPC: 2.498%). Japan diverged from other developed countries with significant mortality increase. Decomposition analysis revealed that increased mortality was primarily driven by population growth (59.109 million) and ageing (46.385 million), partially offset by epidemiological improvements (-39.92 million). The male-to-female ASMR ratio decreased globally from 2.45 to 2.00. Tobacco remained the leading risk factor globally, while body mass index emerged as an increasing concern. Projections indicate a slight global ASMR decrease by 2036, with concerning increases in regions like high-income Asia Pacific and South Asia.
conclusionsDespite declining global ASMR, the absolute burden of aortic aneurysm mortality continues to grow with significant regional and sex-based disparities. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions, particularly in regions facing increasing mortality rates, and emphasise the importance of addressing modifiable risk factors while strengthening healthcare infrastructure in vulnerable areas.
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