Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40984054›Full record

ArticleThe Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry2026

Return on investment from interventions to prevent common mental disorders among adolescents in Australia: A modelling study.

Alexander J Thomas, Nicola Reavley, Tharindu Wickramaarachchi, Kim Sweeny, Holly Erskine, Hanafi Mohamad Husin, Peter Azzopardi, Susan M Sawyer, Nick Scott

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Alexander J ThomasModelling and Biostatistics, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7953-3878
Nicola ReavleySchool of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5513-8291
Tharindu WickramaarachchiModelling and Biostatistics, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-6377-7859
Kim SweenyInstitute for Sustainable Industries & Livable Cities, Victoria University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Holly ErskineSchool of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Hanafi Mohamad HusinGlobal Adoelscent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
Peter AzzopardiGlobal Adoelscent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
Susan M SawyerGlobal Adoelscent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
Nick ScottModelling and Biostatistics, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence on Driving Global Investment in Adolescent Health GNT1171981
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe prevalence of common mental disorders (CMDs, depression/anxiety) among Australian adolescents is increasing. Evidence is needed to inform how prevention efforts can be focused for greatest impact. This study used a compartmental model to estimate how investments could be optimally allocated across interventions to prevent CMDs in adolescents, and the corresponding health and economic benefits.

methodsThe Australian 0- to 19-year-old population was disaggregated by age (0-9, 10-14, 15-19), sex (male, female) and CMD experience (never, currently, previously). Twelve prevention interventions were included following targeted reviews. The model was calibrated to Australian population survey data and included sociodemographic risk factors from the literature that were relevant for included interventions (bullying, financial stress, poor school connectedness, racial discrimination, child maltreatment). An optimisation estimated how an additional AUD$50 million-AUD$1 billion per annum over 2024-2050 could be allocated across interventions to maximise the number of adolescents turning 20 without a lifetime experience of CMD.

resultsThe benefit-cost ratios of interventions varied widely depending on whether they impacted CMDs directly or indirectly by reducing a risk factor, and also whether CMD was their primary purpose or not (e.g. poverty interventions). Optimally investing AUD$50 million-AUD$1 billion p.a. over 2024-2050 could lead to 144,577-791,277 fewer adolescents experiencing a CMD by age 20 (AUD$5064-AUD$18,507/lifetime CMD experience averted), with lower bound benefit-cost ratios ranging from 5.0 to 19.2. Optimally, budget allocations should include combinations of interventions targeting different age groups, sub-populations and risk factors.

conclusionsInvesting in evidence-based prevention interventions for adolescent mental health is likely to have a favourable return-on-investment.

Indexed as

Cost-Benefit AnalysisMental DisordersAdolescentAustraliaChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansMaleYoung AdultAdolescenceadolescent healthallocative efficiencyanxietycommon mental disorderscost-effectivenessdepressioneconomic modellingmental healthpreventionsocial determinants

Identifiers

PMID40984054
PMCPMC12759095

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.